Emissions of methane that escape from Queensland coalmines will rival the state’s electricity sector for climate pollution by 2030 if a clutch of new projects are allowed to go ahead, according to a new report.
Conservationists have identified 18 new coal projects in development in Queensland – most of them targeting coal to export for steelmaking – that will represent a “carbon bomb” and should not be approved.
The report, from the Queensland Conservation Council (QCC) and Lock the Gate, says seven of the projects are too small to be included in expected Albanese government changes to the safeguard mechanism that will target the country’s biggest emitters for emissions reductions.
The report is likely an underestimate of the methane that will actually be released.
International Energy Agency data suggests so-called fugitive emissions from coal, oil and gas in Australia are 60% higher than official figures, largely based on figures from the industry.
According to the report, emissions of methane from coalmines in Queensland will reach 23.7m tonnes, or megatonnes, of CO2-equivalent by 2030, up from 17.4Mt in 2021, the most recent year available for the data.
Emissions from the state’s coal-heavy electricity sector are expected to be at the same levels as those caused by methane from coalmines by 2030. The report accounted for any reductions expected under the safeguard mechanism.
Queensland’s $62bn clean energy plan expects emissions from the electricity sector to plummet. The government has a target to reach 70% of electricity powered by renewables by 2032.
Clare Silcock, an energy strategist at QCC and an author of the report, said the research showed that adding more coalmines would probably “wipe out” any reductions in emissions from the safeguard mechanism.
She said: “To truly take action on climate change, the Queensland Palaszczuk government cannot approve the new coalmines and expansions in the pipeline. Our research shows building new coalmines is completely counterproductive to any other emissions reduction policy.”
The bulk of emissions caused by coalmining comes when the fuel is burned which, if that occurs overseas, does not count towards emissions reported by Australia under the United Nations climate convention.
Ellen Roberts, national coordinator for Lock the Gate, said the report dispelled the myth that emissions from Queensland’s coal “is someone else’s problem, just because the vast majority is exported”.
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She said: “The fugitive and direct emissions from coal mining count directly in Queensland’s carbon accounting and sooner or later the state government will have to face the music.”
Queensland is responsible for a third of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, but its target to reduce emissions by 30% from 2005 levels by 2030 is the least ambitious of all states.
A Queensland department of environment and science statement said emissions were already at 29% below 2030 levels.
“These targets apply to all emissions, including methane,” the statement said, adding some of the projects identified in the report may not go ahead.
A $520m low emissions investment partnerships program announced in this year’s state budget was focused on major emitters “with an initial concentration on the metallurgical coal industry”.
Major projects in the state were now required to produce a decarbonisation plan, and the government was working with the commonwealth and universities “to investigate opportunities for remote sensing, data for atmospheric measurement and modelling” on methane.