In less than 48 hours, the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s U.S. Senate seat will officially begin.
Of course, Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), First Lady Tammy Murphy, and several other candidates have already been running for indicted Senator Bob Menendez’s seat for months. But this Saturday is the Monmouth County Democratic convention, the first Democratic convention of the year – a hugely important milestone in New Jersey’s county party-dominated political system.
The stakes are very high. When the county’s 800 or so voting delegates – a mix of elected officials, local party leaders, and county committeemembers, a low-level elected party position – gather to vote on who will get official party support in Monmouth County, they’ll be setting the tone for the entire rest of the campaign. The Democratic primary may not be until June, but the party endorsements that are made over the next two months will be critical to determining its outcome.
Here’s what you need to know about this Saturday’s convention.
Who will win?
It could genuinely go either way. For months, both Kim and Murphy have been working the phones, meeting with county committeemembers, and doing everything in their power to win the Monmouth line, and no one is confident of who will come out on top.
Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy and a longtime power player in state Democratic circles, has run a more structured campaign in the county, tracking individual delegates and whipping votes in the fight to get above 50%. Her campaign team is made up of people well accustomed to New Jersey’s political system who know how to forge complicated convention coalitions.
Murphy has gotten endorsements from a number of top Democrats in the county, most notably Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch), who has become her top surrogate in swaying delegates to her side. (Pallone is also the Democratic municipal chair in Long Branch, which shows just how involved in local politics he is.) Endorsements, though, are not always reliable, as Murphy found out earlier this week when a few of her supposed supporters said that they have not actually made any endorsement in the race.
Kim’s campaign hasn’t been quite so methodical, and he hasn’t focused his efforts on getting public endorsements – but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a deep well of support. The expectation is that Kim will have an enthusiasm edge among rank-and-file delegates, the type of people whose names you wouldn’t recognize but whose votes count just as much as anyone else’s.
When a collection of 55 Monmouth Democratic leaders met in December for an informal straw poll of the race, Kim beat Murphy 29-13, with another 13 undecided. Nearly two months’ of campaigning has happened since then, but the poll was proof that Kim has many supporters across the county, even if not all of them are broadcasting their views to the world.
Besides Pallone, the county’s other top Democrats haven’t endorsed anyone. County Democratic chair David Brown, State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch), and Assemblywomen Margie Donlon (D-Ocean) and Luanne Peterpaul (D-Long Branch) are all officially neutral, giving county committeemembers more breathing room to support whoever they’d like without fear of crossing party leadership.
Nothing is set in stone. Murphy, Kim, and fellow Democratic Senate candidate Patricia Campos-Medina will be giving speeches prior to the vote on Saturday, and the quality of and reception to those speeches could persuade county committeemembers still on the fence.
A fourth candidate, Larry Hamm, will be on delegates’ ballots but is not set to appear at the convention himself, so he is unlikely to draw much support. Menendez, the incumbent, did not file for the convention, calling its outcome “predetermined” against him.
Lastly, it’s important to note that, unlike some other counties, Monmouth Democrats conduct their endorsement process via secret ballot, so every delegate’s vote will be known only to them. Regardless of what they’ve said publicly or promised any individual campaign, each delegate has only one person to answer to for their vote: themself.
Why does it matter?
The practical effect of the convention is that the winning candidate will be added to the official Monmouth Democratic ticket; that means they’ll appear on voters’ primary ballots on a slate with every other party-endorsed candidate, an often-criticized mechanism known as the party organizational line that can confer a hefty electoral advantage. (Kim has called for an end to the party line system, while Murphy is more supportive of it.)
Given that Monmouth County accounts for 5.6% of the statewide Democratic primary electorate, that’s not insignificant. Many Monmouth voters have likely already decided on their preferred Senate candidate regardless of the party endorsement, but for those who haven’t, the line will hold a lot of sway.
But the symbolic effects of a Murphy or a Kim victory would go much further. Since Monmouth is the first convention of the year, Democrats across the state will be looking at it for signs of what’s to come at future conventions and in the eventual statewide primary.
If Murphy wins, it would go a long way to assuage fears that her campaign is too top-down and can’t summon enthusiasm among the party faithful. Murphy already has guaranteed support in many other counties around the state where party leadership decides endorsements long in advance, but winning a majority of the hundreds of delegates in Monmouth County would prove that her support goes deeper than that.
A Murphy win might also substantially halt the momentum Kim’s campaign has built up. In every public poll of the race, including one from Fairleigh Dickinson University released last week, Kim has posted a double-digit lead over Murphy, so Murphy could really use a clear win in Monmouth to establish her campaign’s dominance.
If Kim wins, on the other hand, it would be concrete proof that Murphy – the wife of the governor and the preferred choice of nearly all of New Jersey’s most powerful Democrats – is not invincible. The state’s Democratic leadership is accustomed to getting what it wants when it comes to primary elections, and Monmouth is Kim’s first chance to throw a wrench in their plans.
Moreover, given her broad institutional advantages, Murphy has to deal with the widespread presumption that she should be winning the Monmouth convention, so a loss for her would be especially damaging in that light. Even before any votes are cast, the expectations game is playing in Kim’s favor.
In the coming weeks, other counties that have similarly open conventions (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Burlington, just to name a few) will meet to decide on their own endorsements. A Kim victory in Monmouth might make it easier for conflicted county committeemembers in those counties to come down on his side; if one county falls Kim’s way, it smooths the path for others to follow.
Both candidates also have strong connections to Monmouth County in particular: Murphy has lived in Middletown (the county’s largest town) for more than two decades – her husband and son will both be delegates at the convention – while Kim represents 10 of the county’s 53 towns in Congress. Whoever loses on Saturday will be taking a loss on their home turf, a rough start for anyone’s campaign.
Who gets to vote?
Monmouth Democrats’ bylaws allow a wide array of county residents to participate in their convention: Democratic county committeemembers, elected officials (at the federal, state, county, and local level), former state and county elected officials, municipal party chairs and vice-chairs, Democratic State Committee members, County Democratic Executive Board members, and a few select party caucuses, which adds up to 806 votes in total. (Each person gets one vote regardless of how many positions they hold.)
And because Democrats don’t control county government in Monmouth County – thus limiting the patronage that can be doled out at a countywide level – individual Democratic delegates are loyal only to themselves and possibly to the local Democratic leaders in their towns. That sets the county apart from, say, Bergen County, where Democrats conventions are filled with delegates on the county government payroll who have a personal financial incentive to toe the party line.
Typically, of the universe of 800 or so voters, several hundred won’t show up to any given year’s county convention. The attendance rate at this year’s convention will likely be higher than average, but the campaigns are still expecting a solid number of missing delegates. And if those delegates come disproportionately from one part of the county or another, that could have an impact on the convention outcome, since the race between Kim and Murphy has developed clear geographical fault lines.
Kim’s strongest areas, not surprisingly, are in the towns that he represents in the 3rd congressional district in western Monmouth County: Holmdel, Freehold, Manalapan, and the like. Combined, those ten towns represent around one-fifth of eligible delegates; Kim has only represented them for a little over a year, but many local Democrats there have nevertheless developed strong loyalties with their congressman.
Murphy, on the other hand, has her base of support along the Jersey Shore and in the 6th congressional district, where local Rep. Pallone is stumping hard for her campaign. Towns that have larger Black and Hispanic populations like Asbury Park, Long Branch, and Neptune Township may be especially favorable for Murphy; she’s also built up connections in her hometown of Middletown and in Bayshore towns like Aberdeen and Matawan.
But in a county with 53 towns and countless local alliances and rivalries, those divides are loose at best, and there are plenty of exceptions.
Murphy, for example, has announced the support of Millstone Democratic municipal chair Natalie Biello, who’s from Kim’s district; former Assemblyman Dan Jacobson (D-Asbury Park), meanwhile, is vociferously on Team Kim despite being from deep Pallone territory. There’s also a big chunk of the county in the 4th district, a solidly Republican district held by Rep. Chris Smith (R-Manchester) where neither Kim nor Pallone has overwhelming clout.
There also may be a stratification between upper-tier party leaders, who are closer to the Murphy orbit, and rank-and-file committeemembers excited by Kim’s campaign and frustrated by Murphy’s. That’s only speculation, though, and Murphy definitely has many supporters among the lower-level delegates as well.
What about the other candidates in the race?
Realistically, Kim and Murphy are the only two candidates with a shot at winning the Monmouth Democratic line on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean Hamm and Campos-Medina, the two other candidates who will be competing for support, won’t be able to make a dent.
Campos-Medina, a labor activist running what may be the most unambiguously progressive campaign of anyone in the race, stands an especially good chance of sweeping up any delegates unsatisfied with both Kim and Murphy. She’s gotten the public endorsement of the Democratic municipal chairman in Oceanport, and has impressed Monmouth Democrats at events leading up to the convention.
If Campos-Medina or Hamm do in fact win a substantial chunk of support at the convention, that could be an impediment to Kim, who would likely be the second choice of most of their more anti-establishment delegates. Monmouth Democrats don’t hold runoffs at their conventions, so in theory Murphy could beat Kim with a plurality of the vote while Campos-Medina and Hamm act as spoilers.
Campos-Medina and Hamm have one additional incentive to do well at the convention: if they reach 10% of the vote, they’ll gain entry to the first primary debate of the year.
What happens once the endorsement is made?
Officially, once Monmouth Democrats make their endorsement, that’s the end of it: their endorsee will have the organizational line on voters’ primary ballots in June.
In reality, things might not be so simple. This primary has been intensely fought up until now, and there’s little reason to think that all the Murphy and Kim partisans across Monmouth County would lay down their arms the minute the party endorses against them. Kim in particular has been laying the groundwork to run a serious off-the-line campaign anywhere he doesn’t get party support, so a loss in Monmouth might not change his strategy very much.
Once the line is awarded, those who have publicly endorsed the losing candidate will have to make a tough decision about whether to renounce their endorsement or break against the party line. And those who haven’t endorsed anyone yet, most prominently State Sen. Gopal and Chairman Brown, might feel pressured to drop their neutrality and get behind the county party’s preferred nominee.
Pallone in particular will be put in an interesting bind if Kim wins. Does he run on the line with Kim despite supporting Murphy, or does he reject the Monmouth line for the first time in his 42-year political career and bracket with Murphy off-the-line instead?
The answers to those questions will help determine how much influence the Monmouth Democratic endorsement will really have. County lines derive much of their power from their ability to unite disparate politicians under a common banner; the more that banner splinters, the less weight the line carries.
What’s happening in the race for Kim’s House seat?
While most eyes will be on the Senate race, Monmouth Democrats will also be awarding the party line for three congressional districts – including Kim’s open 3rd district, which is hosting a competitive primary of its own between Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mount Laurel) and Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran).
While Conaway and Murphy (no relation to the First Lady; the assemblywoman has in fact endorsed Kim for Senate) are both from Burlington County, they’ve been actively working to build up their relationships in the district’s 10 Monmouth towns. Conaway has the support of Gopal, a former aide in Conaway’s legislative office, which should give him an edge, but Murphy isn’t letting him win the line without a fight.
Two other Democratic candidates for the district, civil rights attorney Joe Cohn and small businesswoman Sarah Schoengood, did not file in time to make it into the convention. A third candidate, Kyle Hogeboom, did successfully file for the convention, but he’s since decided not to run after all.
Since the 3rd district is primarily a Burlington seat and Monmouth only makes up around 12% of its Democratic electorate, though, Saturday’s convention won’t be the main event in the contest between Murphy and Conaway. Both candidates would certainly like to get party support in Monmouth, but it’s Burlington Democrats who hold most of the power in their district.
What happens next?
On February 18, Kim and Murphy – and potentially Campos-Medina and Hamm, if they get more than 10% of the vote on Saturday – will participate in the race’s first debate, hosted by the New Jersey Globe, On New Jersey, and the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University.
Then, a week after the debate, two more counties with open, small-d county conventions, Burlington and Hunterdon, are scheduled to meet to decide their own endorsements. From there, county convention season will begin in earnest, with party lines flying left and right in the leadup to the state’s March 25 filing deadline.
The Monmouth Democratic convention is the first step – a hugely important one – on a long road ahead for Kim, Murphy, Campos-Medina, Hamm, and perhaps Menendez, who hasn’t ruled out running again despite his widespread loss of support. It may just be one county, but an entire state will be watching.
If you have any other questions about how New Jersey’s convention processes work or what’s at stake on Saturday, feel free to reach out to joey@njglobe.com.