Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

Protecting people’s health and the economy has been the government’s top priority since the beginning of the COVID‑19 pandemic. This is not just necessary to fight COVID‑19 and save lives — it is also the most sensible economic and fiscal policy. After all, without healthy people, you cannot have a healthy economy or province.

The economic impacts that the global pandemic has had so far are well known. Between February and May 2020 over 1.1 million jobs were lost. Ontario’s real GDP decreased by an estimated 5.7 per cent in 2020. These economic impacts have caused hardship, anxiety and loss for thousands of individuals and families across the province.

In response, governments have stepped forward with unprecedented support, including Ontario’s Action Plan, which now totals $51 billion over four years. This support has been vital, and it must continue. But it has also had a significant impact on public finances. Ontario’s deficit is projected to increase from $8.7 billion in 2019‑20 to $38.5 billion in 2020‑21.

Over the medium term, the government is projecting steadily declining deficits of $33.1 billion in 2021‑22, $27.7 billion in 2022‑23 and $20.2 billion in 2023‑24. However, the province is not projected to return to a pre-COVID‑19 deficit until 2027‑28 under its planning projection. Significant uncertainty still remains about future economic growth, which may impact these projections further.

While hope is on the horizon with vaccine distribution underway, public health modelling demonstrates that because of new variants of concern, there continues to be risks related to the future path of the pandemic. This is why Ontario’s focus today continues to be protecting people’s lives and livelihoods from the virus.

Eventually COVID‑19 will be in the past and the road to fiscal recovery will begin. Ontario has outlined a plan in the 2021 Budget that does not rely on tax hikes or cuts to government services.

Instead, the province’s recovery will be driven by sustained economic growth that will lead to job creation and greater prosperity. While the government can create the conditions for growth, it will ultimately be the people of Ontario who step forward to unleash the province’s full potential.

There is not a penny we are sparing…it’s all-hands-on-deck. We are sparing no expense and sparing no resources.

Honourable Doug Ford
Premier of Ontario
November 10, 2020

Ontario’s Economic Outlook

Ontario’s economy has been significantly impacted by the COVID‑19 pandemic. Following two consecutive quarterly declines of 1.8 per cent and 12.2 per cent in the first half of 2020, Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 9.4 per cent in the third quarter, but it remained below the level of the fourth quarter in 2019. Ontario’s real GDP is estimated to have declined by 5.7 per cent in 2020. Between May 2020 and February 2021, Ontario employment has risen by 829,400 net jobs but remained 305,300 (−4.1 per cent) below its pre‑pandemic level.

The government recognizes these significant economic impacts, which is why it is continuing to support people, employers and jobs during this challenging period.

Ontario’s real GDP is projected to rise 4.0 per cent in 2021, 4.3 per cent in 2022, 2.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.0 per cent in 2024. For the purposes of prudent fiscal planning, these projections were set slightly below the average of private‑sector forecasts.

Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
(Per Cent)
  2019 2020 2021p 2022p 2023p 2024p
Real GDP Growth 2.1 (5.7e) 4.0 4.3 2.5 2.0
Nominal GDP Growth 3.8 (4.8e) 6.2 6.4 4.5 4.0
Employment Growth 2.8 (4.8) 4.2 3.0 2.2 1.6
CPI Inflation 1.9 0.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0

Table footnotes:

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources.

e = estimate.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly

The people of Ontario expect their government to manage public finances in a responsible, accountable and sustainable manner. While the current levels of government spending are necessary due to COVID‑19, long‑term prudent planning will help Ontario’s fiscal recovery and preserve the government’s ability to respond to a future crisis. This is why the government is outlining three key actions as part of the plan to manage Ontario’s finances responsibly:

  • Continuing to build the foundation for economic growth, a key ingredient in Ontario’s recovery;
  • Presenting two alternative economic and fiscal scenarios to enhance transparency; and
  • Developing a path back to sustainable public finances.

Ontario’s plan is consistent with the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 (FSTAA) governing principles that guide the province’s fiscal policy:

  • Transparent: Even as governments around the world delayed their financial updates, Ontario demonstrated leadership on March 25, 2020 by being the first jurisdiction in Canada to release a fiscal plan that reflected the potential impacts of COVID‑19.
  • Responsible: The government has developed a measured and responsible approach to managing Ontario’s finances that does not rely on new tax increases or cuts to spending, while at the same time strengthening critical programs and services, by continuing to ensure growth in base program spending.
  • Flexible: Ontario’s plan has built in significant levels of prudence in the form of contingency funds and a reserve to ensure it has the fiscal flexibility to respond to changing circumstances.
  • Equitable: Ontario’s plan strengthens critical public services, such as health care and education for people today, and ensures those services are protected for future generations.
  • Sustainable: Since the outset of the pandemic, the Ontario government has promised to do what is necessary to respond to COVID‑19, while balancing these needs with the long‑term sustainability of Ontario’s finances. This is reflected in the government’s prudent decision to establish dedicated contingency funds to provide targeted, time‑limited support for critical services and address the extraordinary needs of the people of Ontario throughout the pandemic.
Ontario’s Medium‑Term Fiscal Plan – Details
($ Billions)
  Actual
2019–20
Interim1
2020–21
Medium‑Term Outlook
2021–22
Medium‑Term Outlook
2022–23
Medium‑Term Outlook
2023–24
Revenue — Personal Income Tax 37.7 35.9 36.4 37.4 39.1
Revenue — Sales Tax 28.6 26.0 27.6 30.2 31.9
Revenue — Corporations Tax 15.4 11.4 14.4 14.8 15.4
Revenue — Ontario Health Premium 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4
Revenue — Education Property Tax 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7
Revenue — All Other Taxes 16.3 15.8 16.6 16.6 16.9
Total Taxation Revenue 108.3 99.1 104.8 109.1 113.5
Government of Canada 25.4 33.7 27.4 27.7 28.7
Income from Government Business Enterprises 5.9 3.9 4.5 5.5 6.6
Other Non‑Tax Revenue 16.5 15.1 17.2 17.9 18.3
Total Revenue 156.1 151.8 154.0 160.0 167.0
Base Programs2 — Health Sector 63.7 66.7 69.8 70.6 72.0
Base Programs3 — Education Sector4 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.4 31.5
Base Programs5 — Postsecondary Education Sector 10.5 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.2
Base Programs6 — Children’s and Social Services Sector 17.1 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1
Base Programs7 — Justice Sector 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7
Base Programs8 — Other Programs 26.1 27.8 31.9 34.0 33.5
Total Base Programs 152.3 157.7 166.3 169.7 171.1
COVID‑19 Time‑Limited Funding 20.1 6.7 2.8
Total Programs 152.3 177.8 173.0 172.5 171.1
Interest on Debt 12.5 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.6
Total Expense 164.8 190.3 186.1 186.2 185.6
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (8.7) (38.5) (32.1) (26.2) (18.7)
Reserve 1.0 1.5 1.5
Surplus/(Deficit) (8.7) (38.5) (33.1) (27.7) (20.2)
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 39.6% 47.1% 48.8% 49.6% 50.2%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 226.4% 263.1% 285.6% 297.3% 301.3%
Interest on Debt as Per Cent of Revenue 8.0% 8.2% 8.5% 8.6% 8.7%

Table footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2021 Budget projection for the 2020–21 fiscal year.

[2], [3], [5], [6], [7], [8] For presentation purposes in the 2021 Budget, one-time COVID‑19 related spending has been included within COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding. This funding includes a one-time COVID‑19 Health Sector expense of $8.3 billion in 2020–21, funding allocated from the Support for People and Jobs Fund, and other time-limited tax, energy and health care initiatives. The change in presentation does not impact ministry allocations or ministry structure(s) to be presented in the 2021–22 Expenditure Estimates. For details on time-limited funding and contingencies, see Table 3.9.

[4] Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Revenue Outlook over the Medium Term

Ontario’s revenue outlook is forecast to increase from $156.1 billion in 2019–20 to $167.0 billion in 2023–24.

Ontario’s revenue outlook is anchored by an economic projection based on private-sector forecasts and the best available information at the time of finalizing the planning projection. Details of the medium-term revenue outlook are outlined later in this Budget. See Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for more details.

Key inputs included in the revenue forecast are a prudent economic outlook; existing federal–provincial agreements and funding formulas; and the business plans of government ministries, business enterprises and service organizations.

Program Expense Outlook over the Medium Term

Ontario’s program expense outlook is expected to grow from $152.3 billion in 2019–20 to $171.1 billion in 2023–24. This additional funding will primarily be used to support services including health care, education and other critical investments to continue responding to the COVID‑19 pandemic and support the recovery of the province. Over this period, the government is making substantial time-limited investments of $20.1 billion in 2020–21, $6.7 billion in 2021–22, and $2.8 billion in 2022–23.

On top of these temporary COVID‑19-related initiatives, the government continues to invest in programs that serve the people of Ontario. Over the medium-term outlook, base program expense is projected to increase every year, growing at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent from 2019–20 to 2023–24.

Program Expense Growth excluding COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding
Accessible description of chart

Details of the medium-term program expense outlook are outlined later in this Budget. See Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for more details.

Other Fiscal Plan Assumptions over the Medium Term

The reserve is set at $1.0 billion in 2021–22 and $1.5 billion in each year over the medium term.

Net debt-to-GDP for 2021–22 is projected to be 48.8 per cent and is projected to grow to 50.2 per cent by 2023‑24.

Ontario’s Recovery Plan – Details
($ Billions)
  Recovery Plan
2024‑25
Recovery Plan
2025‑26
Recovery Plan
2026‑27
Recovery Plan
2027‑28
Recovery Plan
2028‑29
Recovery Plan
2029‑30
Revenue — Personal Income Tax 41.4 43.8 46.3 49.0 51.8 54.8
Revenue — Sales Tax 33.2 34.6 36.1 37.6 39.1 40.8
Revenue — Corporations Tax 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0
Revenue — Ontario Health Premium 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6
Revenue — Education Property Tax 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3
Revenue — All Other Taxes 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.1
Total Taxation Revenue 118.3 123.3 128.5 134.0 139.7 145.6
Government of Canada 29.7 30.7 31.8 32.9 34.0 35.2
Income from Government Business Enterprises 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3
Other Non-Tax Revenue 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0
Total Revenue 173.5 180.3 187.3 194.6 202.2 210.1
Programs — Health Sector 73.6 75.2 76.9 78.5 80.2 82.0
Programs — Education Sector1 31.9 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8
Programs — Postsecondary Education Sector 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8
Programs — Children’s and Social Services Sector 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2
Programs — Justice Sector 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0
Programs — Other Programs 33.8 34.1 34.3 34.6 34.9 35.2
Total Programs 173.6 176.2 178.9 181.6 184.3 187.0
Interest on Debt 15.5 16.8 18.1 19.0 20.0 20.6
Total Expense 189.2 193.0 196.9 200.6 204.3 207.6
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (15.7) (12.7) (9.7) (6.0) (2.1) 2.4
Reserve 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Surplus/(Deficit) (17.2) (14.2) (11.2) (7.5) (3.6) 0.9
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 50.5% 50.5% 50.2% 49.5% 48.2% 46.4%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 303.5% 303.5% 301.7% 297.3% 289.8% 278.6%
Interest on Debt as Per Cent of Revenue 9.0% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 9.8%

Table footnotes:

[1] Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Alternative Economic Scenarios and Recovery Plans

…we welcome the government’s choice to lay out more than one economic scenario, since it reflects the reality of an extremely uncertain backdrop.

Derek Burleton, VP & Deputy Chief Economist
Rishi Sondhi, Economist
“2020 Ontario Budget: Whittling Down the Sizeable Deficit,”
TD Economics, November 6, 2020

In order to illustrate the high degree of economic uncertainty, the Ontario Ministry of Finance has developed Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios that the economy could take over the next several years. In the 2020 Budget, Ontario was one of the first governments in the country to provide economic scenarios in response to the economic disruption resulting from COVID‑19. These alternative scenarios should not be considered the best case or the worst case. Rather, they represent possible outcomes in this period of heightened uncertainty.

Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
(Per Cent)
  2021p 2022p 2023p 2024p
Faster Growth Scenario 5.9 4.7 2.7 2.2
Planning Projection 4.0 4.3 2.5 2.0
Slower Growth Scenario 3.1 3.4 2.3 1.8

Table footnotes:

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection and alternative scenarios.

Slower Growth Scenario

These scenarios indicate the broad range of risk related to future economic growth. In the planning projection, the level of real GDP surpasses its pre-pandemic level of the fourth quarter of 2019 by the first quarter of 2022. In the Faster Growth scenario, the pre-pandemic level of real GDP is reached by the third quarter of 2021, while in the Slower Growth scenario it is not reached until the third quarter of 2022. By the year 2024, the level of real GDP in the Faster Growth scenario is 2.6 per cent higher than the planning projection, while in the Slower Growth scenario the level of real GDP is 2.1 per cent lower.

Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts
Accessible description of chart

In the event that the alternative economic scenarios materialize as opposed to the planning projection, Ontario’s fiscal plan will change as a result. Based on the alternative economic scenarios, the government has developed two plausible alternative fiscal paths to provide maximum transparency about the risks in the current environment.

Over the medium term, under the Faster Growth scenario, the deficit outlook may improve to $30.3 billion in 2021‑22, $23.2 billion in 2022‑23 and $14.1 billion in 2023‑24. However, if the Slower Growth scenario takes place instead, the deficit outlook may deteriorate to $34.9 billion in 2021‑22, $31.5 billion in 2022‑23 and $25.4 billion in 2023‑24.

Range of Ontario Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios
Accessible description of chart

In addition to alternative growth scenarios over the medium term, the government has developed two alternative recovery plans. As shown in the graph below, the starting point for each of these scenarios varies based on how quickly the Ontario economy will grow between 2021 and 2024. Under the Faster Growth scenario, the government could eliminate the deficit by 2027‑28. However, under the Slower Growth scenario, the recovery plan could be prolonged with the deficit eliminated in 2031‑32.

Range of Ontario Recovery Plan Scenarios
Accessible description of chart

Borrowing and Debt Management

Ontario’s borrowing program is primarily used to fund deficits, refinance maturing debt and make investments in capital assets. Ontario will continue to finance most of its borrowing program in the long-term public markets in Canada and internationally. As of March 5, 2021, Ontario had completed $59.0 billion in long-term borrowing in 2020‑21, including pre-borrowing of $5.2 billion for fiscal year 2021‑22, and launched a number of large bond issues in 2020‑21 to enable it to complete its borrowing program. These included the largest issues ever launched by a province in the Canadian domestic bond market, the euro denominated bond market, the pound sterling bond market, the second-largest issue in the U.S. dollar bond market, and the two largest Green Bond issues ever launched by Ontario.

The total long-term borrowing requirements for 2021‑22 and 2022‑23 are forecast to be $54.7 billion and $59.1 billion, lower by $3.9 billion and $0.2 billion, respectively, compared to the 2020 Budget forecast for those fiscal years.

See Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management for more details on Ontario’s borrowing program.

2020‑21 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
($ Billions)
  2020‑21 —
2020 Budget
2020‑21 —
Change from 2020 Budget
2020‑21 —
Interim1 2020‑21
Medium-Term
Outlook —
2021‑22
Medium-Term
Outlook —
2022‑23
Medium-Term
Outlook —
2023‑24
Deficit/(Surplus) 38.5 38.5 33.1 27.7 20.2
Investment in Capital Assets 10.6 1.4 11.9 11.8 12.5 11.9
Non-Cash Adjustments (9.2) (9.2) (9.5) (9.5) (9.5)
Loans to Infrastructure Ontario 0.2 (0.2) 0.0
Other Net Loans/Investments 0.6 (0.7) (0.1) 1.3 0.1 (1.0)
Debt Maturities/Redemptions 26.7 26.7 25.0 30.5 33.6
Total Funding Requirement 67.0 0.7 67.7 61.9 61.1 55.2
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (5.7) 4.7 (1.0) (6.0) (2.0)
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents (1.4) (4.0) (5.4) 4.0
Pre-borrowing in 2019‑20 (7.6) (7.6)
Pre-borrowing for 2021‑22 5.2 5.2 (5.2)
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing 52.3 6.7 59.0 54.7 59.1 55.2

Table footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2021 Budget projection for the 2020‑21 fiscal year.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

In the event alternative economic scenarios materialize, the province’s borrowing requirements in the next three years would also change. Under the Faster Growth scenario, long-term borrowing would decrease by a total of $13.2 billion over the medium-term outlook, while under the Slower Growth scenario, long-term borrowing would increase by $10.9 billion over the same period.

Range of Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Accessible description of chart

Ontario has deployed extraordinary fiscal measures to counter the effects of COVID‑19. The government will continue to make available the necessary resources now to protect people and jobs. It also remains committed to reducing the debt burden and putting Ontario’s finances back on a more sustainable path. See Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management for more details on the debt burden reduction strategy.

Ontario’s Capital Plan

A key element of the government’s plan to create growth is investment in infrastructure, including strategic investments in transit, highways, schools, hospitals and broadband. Planned investments over the next 10 years total $145.4 billion, including $16.9 billion in 2021‑22. These investments are fundamental to the government’s made-in-Ontario plan for growth, recovery and long-term prosperity.

Key highlights in the capital plan include:

  • A historic investment of $2.8 billion for broadband infrastructure, ensuring that every region in the province has access to reliable broadband services by 2025. Combined with prior commitments, this new funding increases Ontario’s investment in broadband to nearly $4 billion over six years beginning in 2019‑20.
  • $30.2 billion over the next 10 years, including an additional $3 billion since the 2020 Budget, in hospital infrastructure. Significant new investments in major hospital projects currently under construction or in various stages of planning include:
    • Support for a new inpatient care tower in Etobicoke, and a complete rebuild of the Mississauga hospital in partnership with Trillium Health Partners;
    • New construction at Peel Memorial, in partnership with William Osler Health System, which will address the increasing demand for health care services in Brampton and the Region of Peel;
    • Expansion of inpatient beds and ambulatory care at London Health Sciences Centre and to expand the Stem Cell Transplant Unit to double its current capacity;
    • Funding to support the planning of a new regional hospital in Windsor-Essex; and
    • Support for a new hospital and a lodge in Moosonee, as well as a new ambulatory care centre on Moose Factory Island.
  • Development of four, new long-term care homes in Mississauga, Ajax and Toronto under the Long-Term Care Accelerated Build Pilot Program. Construction is underway at all of the sites, with completion dates planned for early 2022.
  • Investing in the development of a new children’s treatment centre in Chatham-Kent to meet an increasing demand for services, as well as to improve rehabilitative treatment for thousands of children and youth with special needs.
  • Continuing to support building a children’s treatment centre in Ottawa as part of the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario to co-locate and increase access to critical programs and services, such as developmental care and occupational therapy.
  • Provincial funding to support infrastructure projects under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP).
  • $61.6 billion over 10 years for public transit, to continue to deliver on the government’s commitment towards priority projects such as:
    • The four priority subway projects in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the largest subway expansion in Canadian history, that will expand the subway system by 50 per cent;
    • The updated Hamilton LRT project, which has been added as a fifth priority transit project;
    • The GO Rail Expansion program to provide two-way, all-day service every 15 minutes over core segments of the network, and nearly double annual ridership by 2055; and
    • The Kitchener GO Rail Expansion project to strengthen connections and increase access to Ontario’s fastest growing urban cities along the Toronto-Waterloo Innovation Corridor.
  • More than $21 billion over 10 years to support the planning and/or construction of highway expansion and rehabilitation projects across the province, including expansion projects on Highway 400 from Langstaff Road to Highway 9 in York Region, Highway 401 between Tilbury and London and between Milton and Mississauga, stretches of Highway 3 from Essex to Leamington, Highway 652 Cochrane Bypass, Bradford Bypass portions of Highway 69 between Parry Sound and Sudbury, portions of Highway 11/17 between Thunder Bay and Nipigon, and Highway 17 from the Ontario/Manitoba border to Rush Bay Road.
  • Funding support for the education sector through new, expanded and upgraded schools, including a recently approved elementary school in Brantford, and offering more choice and flexibility for children and parents by creating additional child care spaces.
Infrastructure Expenditures1
($ Millions)
Sector Interim2, 3
2020‑21
Medium-Term Outlook
2021‑22
Medium-Term Outlook
2022‑23
Medium-Term Outlook
2023‑24
10-Year
Total44
Transportation — Transit 5,434 5,642 6,801 6,736 61,622
Transportation — Provincial Highways 2,912 2,592 2,762 2,671 21,323
Transportation — Other Transportation, Property and Planning 228 182 181 196 1,513
Health — Hospitals 2,671 1,619 2,567 2,604 30,223
Health — Other Health 283 304 336 328 3,420
Education 2,241 3,295 2,773 2,415 21,162
Postsecondary Education — Colleges and Other 899 893 617 284 4,043
Postsecondary Education — Universities 90 93 135 122 1,285
Social 267 328 152 213 2,379
Justice 433 983 601 420 3,571
Other Sectors5 1,731 2,691 3,053 3,114 16,484
Total Infrastructure Expenditures 17,190 18,623 19,978 19,104 167,025
Less: Other Partner Funding6 2,294 1,765 2,684 1,951 21,584
Total7 14,896 16,858 17,294 17,153 145,442

Table footnotes:

[1] Includes interest capitalized during construction; third-party investments in hospitals, colleges and schools; federal and municipal contributions to provincially owned infrastructure investments; and transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies. 

[2] Interim represents the 2021 Budget projection for the 2020‑21 fiscal year.

[3] Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $11.9 billion.

[4] Total reflects the planned infrastructure expenditures for years 2021‑22 through 2030‑31.

[5] Includes broadband infrastructure, government administration, natural resources, and culture and tourism industries.

[6] Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.

[7] Includes federal‑municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.

Chart Descriptions

Program Expense Growth excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding

The bar chart shows program expense growth from 2019‑20 to 2023‑24 excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding. For 2019‑20, program expense, excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding, is $152.3 billion, $157.7 billion in 2020‑21, $166.3 billion in 2021‑22, $169.7 billion in 2022‑23, and $171.1 billion in 2023‑24. This represents annual year-over-year growth rates of 3.6 percent, 5.4 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

There are only three fiscal years from 2019‑20 to 2023‑24 where COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding is included as part of total program expense. In 2020‑21, COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding of $20.1 billion increases total program expense to $177.8 billion. In 2021‑22, COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding of $6.7 billion increases total program expense to $173.0 billion. In 2022‑23, COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding of $2.8 billion increases total program expense to $172.5 billion.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart

Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts

This graph shows the levels of real GDP in billions of 2012 dollars consistent with the Planning Projection, as well as the Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios for 2019, including an estimate for 2020 and projections for 2021 through to 2024.

The 2019 value of $798.2 billion and 2020 estimate of $752.8 billion are the same for all three scenarios. The real GDP values in billions for the Slower Growth, Planning Projection and Faster Growth scenarios in consecutive order are: for 2021, 775.8, 782.8 and 796.9; for 2022, 802.1, 816.3 and 834.0; for 2023, 820.8, 836.5 and 856.5; and, for 2024, 835.5, 853.4 and 875.6.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Range of Ontario Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios

The bar chart illustrates the range of Ontario medium-term deficit outlooks based on the two alternative economic scenarios presented in Chapter 2. The 2021 Budget deficit outlook scenario estimates the deficit to be $33.1 billion in 2021‑22, $27.7 billion in 2022‑23 and $20.2 billion in 2023‑24. Under the Faster Growth scenario, the deficit is estimated to be $30.3 billion in 2021‑22, $23.2 billion in 2022‑23 and $14.1 billion in 2023‑24. Under the Slower Growth scenario, the deficit is estimated to be $34.9 billion in 2021‑22, $31.5 billion in 2022‑23 and $25.4 billion in 2023‑24.

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Range of Ontario Recovery Plan Scenarios

The graph illustrates the range of Ontario recovery plan outlooks, based on the two alternative economic scenarios presented in Chapter 2. The 2021 Budget deficit outlook scenario estimates the deficit to be $33.1 billion in 2021‑22, $27.7 billion in 2022‑23, $20.2 billion in 2023‑24, $17.2 billion in 2024‑25, $14.2 billion in 2025‑26, $11.2 billion in 2026‑27, $7.5 billion in 2027‑28, and $3.6 billion in 2028‑29, before returning to a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2029‑30. Under the Faster Growth scenario, the deficit is estimated to be $30.3 billion in 2021‑22, $23.2 billion in 2022‑23, $14.1 billion in 2023‑24, $10.5 billion in 2024‑25, $6.9 billion in 2025‑26, and $3.2 billion in 2026‑27, before returning to a surplus of $1.2 billion in 2027‑28. Under the Slower Growth scenario, the deficit is estimated to be $34.9 billion in 2021‑22, $31.5 billion in 2022‑23, $25.4 billion in 2023‑24, $23.0 billion in 2024‑25, $20.7 billion in 2025‑26, $18.2 billion in 2026‑27, $15.2 billion in 2027‑28, $12.0 billion in 2028‑29, $8.1 billion in 2029‑30, and $4.0 billion in 2030‑31, before returning to a surplus of $0.8 billion in 2031‑32.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Range of Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing

($ Billions)
  2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24
Planning Projection $59.0 $54.7 $59.1 $55.2
Slower Growth Scenario $59.0 $56.5 $62.9 $60.5
Faster Growth Scenario $59.0 $51.9 $54.7 $49.2

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Updated: March 24, 2021
Published: March 24, 2021