US Election 2020: Four More Years?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Can he do it again? Donald Trump defied all the odds last time, and now we are just six weeks out from one of the most unpredictable presidential races in US history. Will the pandemic deter voters? Will the count be decisive? Will Trump accept the verdict if it goes against him?
Early voting is just under way in a handful of states, and the death of Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg throws another spanner in the works of an already fraught campaign. The polls predict a Joe Biden win, but who could believe them this time? It’s all to play for in a deeply divided America, and the consequences for us here in Australia are huge. You’ve got lots of questions on this, so let’s get you some answers. Welcome to Q+A.
Hey there. Welcome to the program. Joining me tonight, former adviser to presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr, Kim Hoggard, who grew up in DC. Author and American abroad Cole Brown, who was raised in Philly and moved here in February. He says the US response to COVID stands in stark contrast to that of Australia’s. Joining us from Wollongong tonight, Barbara Heineback worked for two Democrat administrations – Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.
Author and Trump supporter John Ruddick, who describes mainstream media coverage of President Trump as “blindly unfair”. And Kylie Morris was the BBC’s correspondent in Afghanistan before serving as Washington correspondent for Britain’s Channel 4. She’s recently returned to her roots, now working for the ABC in New South Wales’ Hunter Valley. Would you please make all of them feel welcome?
And remember, you can join the conversation on iview, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. #QandA is the hashtag. Each week we ask our panellists to engage in a robust but respectful debate, so if you’re getting involved on social media, we ask that you do the same. We have former White House insiders from both sides of politics here tonight, so you are guaranteed to hear opinions that you do not agree with. Our first question tonight comes from Javiera Scarett.
JAVIERA SCARETT
The world has suffered a devastating loss in the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a giant in the fight for gender equality and the rights of minorities. Her death leaves an opening on the Supreme Court and has the power to dramatically reshape the presidential race as Trump and Republicans in the Senate begin making moves to fill it. In light of this, what will be different about the last 44 days of the race compared to what we’ve seen so far?
HAMISH MACDONALD
John Ruddick?
JOHN RUDDICK, AUTHOR
OK, so, look, Ruth Bader Ginsburg was a phenomenon, a larger-than-life figure. And there’s been 119 Supreme Court justices in the history of the republic, and most of them pass with time and we forget their names, but Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a legend and she will be remembered by future generations. The thing that... I was really struck yesterday – I saw something on some American news – the leader of the conservatives on the Supreme Court for the last sort of 10 to 15 years was Justice Antonin Scalia.
He was the leader of the conservatives. He was the polar opposite of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But I just found out over the weekend they not just had a very warm relationship as colleagues, they were personal friends, their family were all personal friends, and they went on overseas holidays together.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Sure.
JOHN RUDDICK
So, I thought, “This is good. We need more of this.”
HAMISH MACDONALD
But how does this change the last days of the race? What’s Trump going to do about it?
JOHN RUDDICK
OK. Well, the Constitution is clear. There is a lot of misinformed opinion out there about what the rules are in this situation. So, the Constitution says there’s nine justices of the Supreme Court. They are nominated by... The president proposes somebody, and then a majority in the Senate has to say whether they accept them or not. Now, the rule is, in a presidential election year, like we’re in right now, if there is a Supreme Court vacancy, the rule is... And this is not in the Constitution, but this is a convention.
This is a norm that has been around since the beginning of the republic. If this precise situation were to occur and the president is from one party and the Senate majority is from that same party, then the rule is that they have a debate and that Senate...that justice... that nominee from the president will probably become a High Court justice.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is it as simple as that, Kylie?
KYLIE MORRIS, JOURNALIST
No.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Well, then why not?
KYLIE MORRIS
So, I think John is slightly rewriting recent history at least in the sense that the Republicans... I was there when President Obama nominated Merrick Garland, wanted Merrick Garland to be confirmed in his final year.
HAMISH MACDONALD
This is many months out from the election.
KYLIE MORRIS
This is many months out from the election. Mitch McConnell...at the moment, we’re hearing a lot from the Republicans suggesting that there are historical precedents, it goes back to time immemorial.
JOHN RUDDICK
That’s not in dispute.
KYLIE MORRIS
But Mitch McConnell at that time – I was there, I covered it – he was very clear the reason why he didn’t want to proceed, the reason why Lindsey Graham said he didn’t want to proceed why all these people didn’t want to proceed, was because they did not want to decide themselves. They wanted to let the American people decide via the presidential election.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is that what should happen this time?
KYLIE MORRIS
Well, I don’t know whether it should happen. They can do what they like, but certainly they’re not sticking to the commitment they made. They’re behaving in completely the opposite fashion to what they did at that time.
JOHN RUDDICK
Sorry. Sorry, Kylie. Kylie, the...what happened in 2016 was... You are correct. You can dig out quotes from the Republicans in 2016 saying, “We’re not gonna even fulfil...we’re not going to even debate Obama’s nominee.” OK. But the quotes you’re referring to was campaign talk. Now, campaign talk is trumped by, is overridden by constitutional convention.
KYLIE MORRIS
You don’t think this is campaign talk? We’re 40 days out from an election.
JOHN RUDDICK
We’re talking about... It would be the first time in the history of the republic if we had a president from one party and a Senate majority from the same party...
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, I want to bring Cole Brown in here. Why does this matter so much?
COLE BROWN, AUTHOR
Well, first of all, I think that “campaign talk” is a hilarious euphemism for just dishonesty. I mean, Lindsey Graham said clearly, he said, “Please quote me on this. “You can use the quote against me in four years should we come into this situation again.”
JOHN RUDDICK
It’s not the same situation.
COLE BROWN
This is totally invented.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Can you just explain, though, why, as a young American, why does this decision mean so much to your future?
COLE BROWN
Well, it’s hugely consequential. I mean, the two justices that Trump has put on the court already both replaced pre-existing conservative judges. So, this is one where he would be able to flip. This is a liberal justice going out, and he would be able to appoint a conservative one.
KIM HOGGARD, FORMER ADVISER TO PRESIDENTS REAGAN AND BUSH SNR
In addition to that, if I could... Sorry, Cole.
COLE BROWN
Sure.
KIM HOGGARD
This... A lot of Democrats feel that their choice for a Supreme Court nominee was robbed from them with Merrick Garland, so that increases the tension and the political...politicisation of this particular appointment.
COLE BROWN
Something I’d like to add, though, specifically too when you talk about sort of young voters, is that this is clearly going to have serious implications for abortion rights, and Trump...that’s an issue that matters to young voters. And Trump has put his short list forward, he’s said that it will probably be a woman. The woman that has now become the most likely candidate, Amy Barrett, is very sceptical of sort of a woman’s access to abortion. So, this is something that we’ll have... You know, Amy Barnett is 48 years old. If she gets on the bench, this will have decades and decades of ramifications.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, let’s take our next question.
BARBARA HEINEBACK, FORMER PRESS OFFICER TO ROSALYNN CARTER
Can I say something? Can I get in?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Let’s just take our next question, Barbara. We’ll come to you then. It’s from Marla Minow in our studio Audience.
MARLA MINOW
Panel, it is very likely that the vote totals will not be known on the night of the election – quite possibly not known for many days or even weeks post election day – and we’ve seen Donald Trump foment distrust and spread disinformation over the past months about postal ballots. My question for the panel – do you believe Donald Trump will call on his base to be calm and patient or do you think he will create chaos?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Barbara Heineback?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Yeah. It’s that question’s concern that I want to double back to Ruth Ginsburg and the next person for the Supreme Court. I don’t know why we are pivoting right away, “Will Donald Trump create some violence or discord?” You have to remember that it was Hillary Clinton who said a couple of weeks back that Joe Biden should not concede, no matter what happens. And then there have been commentators on CNN and other places who have continually said that there’s going to be problems and people in the streets. “We will revolt if...”
And, you know, one commentator used the F-bomb and said that there will be a revolt if Joe Biden and the Democrats don’t win.
HAMISH MACDONALD
To be fair, Barbara, though, you’re talking about commentators, you’re talking about past candidates. Of the two presidential candidates this time, there’s only one that’s indicated he may not accept the result, and that’s Donald Trump.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Donald Trump, I believe, if I have it correct, when he said he may not accept it, it has to do with the mail-in ballots. So, that brings up another question, but I think it’s up to both parties not to create any violence and to do exactly what the President’s wife said during her speech during the presidential campaign, and that was it’s time for everyone to pause and stand back and take a break. We had two things going into the election.
It was COVID-19 and it was Black Lives Matter demonstrators and riots that were going on, and now we have that third layer which is the Supreme Court justice. And when we look at that, a couple of facts that is that, at one point, we had a presidential nominee and the confirmation was the same day. That’s happened four times. We had 13 times, during the history of America, that we had nominees that were nominated and confirmed within one week. So, yeah, some of them have taken up to 106 days. Kavanaugh was, you know, a lot of craziness.
HAMISH MACDONALD
That was something like three months. Kim, just on the question, though, about whether Trump might call on his supporters to be calm and patient, do you see him doing that in the event of a contested outcome?
KIM HOGGARD
Well, he’s already shown that he’s capable of it, hasn’t he? When the lockdown occurred during the pandemic, you know, he called for his supporters to liberate the states. He’s already suggested that it will be a rigged election if he loses. He’s spent much of his campaign deriding mail-in ballots and creating distrust around America’s election system, when there is flatly no evidence to suggest that there’s anything wrong or fraudulent with mail-in balloting.
Now, he’s done it to such an extent that the Republican Party had to ask him to stop because so many of his base were going to vote in person and it was going to be difficult, during COVID, for that to be done, and it could cost him votes. So, yes, I could see him ratcheting up the rhetoric. We can even see just tonight, from the remarks here tonight, that whether it’s about Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a diminutive woman who was the titan of equal rights and gender equality in America, we’re talking about her replacement before she’s buried in the ground.
And we haven’t even had the decency to really reflect, as a nation, on the impact that she has had, a legacy that she will leave for many, many generations, of which we can be very grateful.
HAMISH MACDONALD
We’re in an interesting situation, though, on this discussion tonight, where the person that’s worked for Democratic presidents seems concerned that the Democrats are going to foment chaos if they don’t like the election result, and the person that has worked for Republican presidents is worried that Trump is going to foment chaos.
KIM HOGGARD
Well, Barbara and I both had the good fortune to work in presidencies, and to see what a normal presidency looks like.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is this one?
KIM HOGGARD
Absolutely not. Absolutely not, and I think we can all see that. It’s pretty obvious. There’s no hiding behind the fact that he operates out of a normal, you know, stature that a president would take. No president that I know – and I know Jimmy Carter didn’t do this – incited people, inflamed a situation to go out and either, you know, liberate their states or to ‘lock her up’. I mean, we can go through a list of pleas on the part of the President that’s not presidential and it’s not about uniting the nation. He operates by dividing the nation.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I just want to bring Kylie in here. What happens if the result is disputed, if we don’t get a result?
KYLIE MORRIS
Well, that’s part of the reason why there’s so much heat about who goes onto the Supreme Court bench, in the sense that there’s every chance that, if there is a dispute, it’s going to end up potentially before the Supreme Court. If it’s a conservative-majority Supreme Court by that time – we’re talking about December – then the fears, certainly from the Democratic side, is that they would find in favour of Donald Trump.
I mean, the mail-in ballots, I think, are key. Certainly, we’ve heard Bill Barr as well, I mean, previously, certainly in other administrations – and Barbara and Kim would know this better than I do – but the attorney-general has always held themselves slightly apart, and they’ve wanted, at least, to be seen as independent, whereas Bill Barr is saying, “Don’t send in mail-in votes because it means that public officials will see the way that you’re voting.” So, it’s not only coming from Trump himself, it’s throughout every layer of the administration.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’ve seen some reporting in the US saying that up to 12 states might end up with court cases around the result in those states.
KYLIE MORRIS
That’s right.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is it possible that we get to January 20 next year – inauguration – and we don’t know what the outcome of the election is? And what happens then?
KYLIE MORRIS
Well, if those states are Republican – where the Republican legislatures are already in place – then we know fairly well how that’s going to turn out. I think, if it’s disputed, certainly Trump will move all the machinery and work on exaggerating the doubts that he’s already seeded in people’s minds to ensure... And that’s what this is all about, it’s ensuring that, come a close vote, he gets over the line on the other side of it.
HAMISH MACDONALD
John, if Trump loses but it’s close, would you like him to concede?
JOHN RUDDICK
Look, I think, if it was a Bush-Gore 2000 repeat-type of situation, where it was very tense for five weeks, my hunch is Donald Trump would say, “You know what? I love America so much, I don’t want to put America through this division.” Because this is what Richard Nixon did. This is what Richard Nixon did in 1960.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Even someone supporting Trump on this panel is laughing at you for saying that.
JOHN RUDDICK
This is what the Republicans did in 1960 when there was a disputed election – when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon. Most historians today will say that there was fraud in that election, and Richard Nixon thought about challenging it for a couple of days and he didn’t. I do have to correct Kylie. I’m sorry again, Kylie. We had a very pleasant chat before, but this is what happens if there is a disputed election by January 20. It’s in the Constitution.
Most constitutional experts in America now concede – left and right – that what happened with Bush-Gore in 2000 should not have gone to the Supreme Court. The Constitution says disputed elections are resolved by the House of Representatives. So, if we don’t have an election when the electoral college is meant to have finalised, by about January 20, it goes to the House of Representatives. But there’s 440 members of the House of Representatives, or thereabouts. They don’t vote as individuals.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
435.
JOHN RUDDICK
Thank you. Thank you, Barbara. They vote as state delegations, so there’ll be 50 votes. So, all the people from California... And that means Trump wins. If it’s a disputed election, Trump wins.
KYLIE MORRIS
That very much depends on who wins, I’ve got to say.
JOHN RUDDICK
The Republicans have got 28 votes, the Democrats have got...
HAMISH MACDONALD
We’ve got lots to discuss tonight, so let’s take our next question. It comes from Matt Burns.
MATT BURNS
Just about the riots. Given that the riots are predominantly in minority-heavy areas, why do Democrat mayors seem so reluctant to stop them?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Cole Brown?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Oh, please! Can I have a shot?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Let’s just let Cole answer that first.
COLE BROWN
I have no doubt that Ms Heineback, as I’ve seen in the past, will have an opinion on this. My opinion is this – I think that this term ‘riots’ and sort of how certain American cities are rife with them is just, at its base, a fallacy. I mean, there have been studies where the protests over the summer for BLM have been between 93% and 95% peaceful. Those actions that are not peaceful, that includes actions by counter-protesters with the intent to incite violence.
So, this understanding that sort of there are certain cities that are rife with violence amid these BLM protests is really just as a result of a president who is lagging behind in the polls attempting to elevate law and order, and therefore spreading this narrative, which is fundamentally untrue.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Barbara?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
I’m sorry, but I have to contradict with that almost entirely. First of all, we do have almost in every major city where there’s been strife, it’s a Democratic mayor. We had Mayor Bowser in Washington, DC, and when the President tried to come in and stop the riots there, she not only told them to leave, but she also told the National Guard to leave as well. And when we look at cities like Seattle and Portland, there have been riots there almost every night.
Those demonstrations might begin peacefully during the daytime, but as soon as the sun goes down, their hoodies come on and then they start rioting in the streets and killing people and destroying properties. Over 1,000 people have been killed. This started May 25. And I marched with Black Lives Matter in 2014, and they almost started a riot that night.
COLE BROWN
Can I please jump in? Ms Heineback, I have to jump in, ‘cause I mean, like, that was just untrue. I mean, much of what she just said was untrue.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Specifically which?
COLE BROWN
There is no ‘they’. There is no ‘they’ donning hoodies.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
It’s proven and there are surveys...
COLE BROWN
I’m sorry, but...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Barbara Heineback, if you could just pause for a moment, we’ll let Cole Grey respond to you.
COLE BROWN
Cole Brown.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Brown.
COLE BROWN
The book is Greyboy, though. It was close. This sort of “they are donning hoodies” and then “they are coming for you”, that is clearly language of division and the ‘they’, oftentimes, in that case, is people that look like me. So, let’s just be clear – when we use that language, that does not reflect fact, and it is often pundits that have not done their research and a president that is lagging behind in the polls attempting to elevate this issue.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Can you just share your personal experience...
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Why is it that Black Lives Matter...
HAMISH MACDONALD
If you wouldn’t mind just holding a moment, please, Barbara. Cole, your book is excellent. Greyboy.
COLE BROWN
Thank you.
HAMISH MACDONALD
You’ve written a chapter in it about your experience as a 16-year-old, back in 2012. You were at a house party with schoolmates. The police turned up. What happened to you and how did that compare with the way your schoolmates experienced it?
COLE BROWN
Yeah, so the book is about growing up in white spaces which is how I grew up in Philadelphia, and I think it’s important to underscore that this is not sort of an inherently political document, it’s about my experience, it’s part memoir. The incident that you’re talking about is I was in a house party where I was one of two black people, one of my best friends was the other black kid at the party. Police came in, we thought, to break up the party.
They were under the impression that just my friend and I were robbing the place, which made absolutely no logical sense. As a result of that, we were accosted, we were put on the ground, guns were put to the back of our heads, and the reason that I thought it was important to include that, and particularly in this discussion, is that BLM is often in these circles used as sort of a political bellwether when in reality, you know, the consequences of BLM fall very hard on the body for some, myself included, and in all likelihood, possibly Ms Heineback as well.
HAMISH MACDONALD
So what do you make of the way she characterises the Black Lives Matter movement?
COLE BROWN
I think that it is wrong and divisive language and it is language that Trump clearly used in an attempt to appeal to sort of white suburban voters, in his language white suburban housewives. It does not seem to be working in many of those places and ultimately it works to demonise many people.
KIM HOGGARD
And let’s remember – who started the violence anyway? These peaceful protests were in response to horrific police brutality in which we were all exposed to, with video, and traumatised by. So let’s not forget that where the violence started was from law enforcement and we watched it and we were traumatised by it and there were peaceful protests not only across American cities, but all around the world, here in Australia as well – that’s how much that resonated.
So, to distract from the issue by talking about, yes, no-one likes violence, no-one wants to see buildings burned, no-one wants to see that, but let’s remember where the violence started.
JOHN RUDDICK
Hang on, I’m sorry...
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Thank you, Kim, and on that note, we have to remember it was May 25th when those demonstrations began – and it was, I couldn’t agree more with both of you, a wonderful opportunity for the world, not just America, to see that there are problems with police brutality in the USA – but what happened was within two days after that, immediately, the mayors of these same urban cities, where there’s a lot of violence, started talking about defunding the police and not another word has been breathed...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Looks like we’ve got a bit of a problem with Barbara’s line there, so I think we might take our next question, It’s a video from Darren Gatcliffe in Sunshine West, Victoria.
DARREN GATCLIFFE, SUNSHINE WEST, VIC
The Democrats have had power in the Senate for decades and problems with poverty, health affordance and wage growth have only ever increased on their watch. Donald Trump has only been president for four years now, how are all America’s issues all his fault? Why doesn’t anyone mention his success in employment for all Americans, the listing of more and more health initiatives and reforms, and the performance of the American economy in the first four years of his term?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kylie, is Trump unfairly treated in the way we all see him?
KYLIE MORRIS
I think the people who I met at the 2016 election who were voting for Donald Trump, a lot of them were conservatives who simply wanted lower taxes and they wanted business-friendly regulation, and even though they might not have liked the drama necessarily associated with Donald Trump or the uncertainty, they liked the idea that the Republicans, after the election, won the House, the Senate and the White House and that he could get things done. And we have seen a rolling back of regulations, certainly, so I think for the people who supported him, he has delivered what they wanted.
They also, of course, wanted someone to go in and wreak chaos, they wanted someone to go in and break apart the establishment and turn it all upside down. So the more chaotic he is and the more he turns things upside down, the more delight there is amongst his base, so I think you really have to keep that in mind.
HAMISH MACDONALD
So, John, is COVID, his handling of COVID, or mishandling as many characterise it, overshadowing anything that he has achieved on the economy, on jobs?
JOHN RUDDICK
Yes. Yes, entirely.
HAMISH MACDONALD
And rightly so?
JOHN RUDDICK
No, no, wrongly so. Look, we want two things out of a US president. We want peace in the world and we want prosperity at home, because if America is prosperous, the rest of...
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’m asking you about his handling of COVID.
JOHN RUDDICK
OK. Things were going terrific...
HAMISH MACDONALD
What’s he done right with COVID?
JOHN RUDDICK
Donald Trump was well ahead in the polls and the betting markets after the impeachment. So, the Democrats had thrown everything at him – they had the Mueller report, they had Russia, they had impeachment, they had just endless... Goes on and on. But he beat them all and he’s going well, and then a once-in-a-quarter-century flu comes along that we need to take seriously...
KYLIE MORRIS
A flu?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, a once-in-a-quarter-century, yeah, it’s a flu-like symptom. Well, it’s not Ebola, is it? It’s flu-like. OK.
KYLIE MORRIS
It’s a pandemic.
JOHN RUDDICK
Yes, OK. So, this pandemic comes along and, you know, Trump was the first leader in the world to stop flights from China, and who called him a racist as usual? All of his enemies in the media and the Democrats. But then a week later everybody follows him. Then he stopped flights from Europe, and I remember being quite shocked by that, and then he got attacked for that but then the rest of the world followed shortly after.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Do you think he was wrong to say it will miraculously go away back in February?
JOHN RUDDICK
Look, Trump is an up-beat person, he’s an optimistic person.
HAMISH MACDONALD
But that’s not my question.
JOHN RUDDICK
He wants to be positive about it, OK?
HAMISH MACDONALD
But that’s just not true to say it will miraculously go away – when you’re the leader of the country, don’t you need to be honest?
JOHN RUDDICK
Obviously Trump shoots his mouth off, OK? A lot of people have said for years, “We want a non-politician as the president.” Well, we got one.
KYLIE MORRIS
But he didn’t shoot his mouth off.
JOHN RUDDICK
Now, being a non-politician means he’s not a polished speaker. People know what’s in his heart, OK?
COLE BROWN
Wait, wait, wait.
JOHN RUDDICK
Hang on, hang on, last point...
COLE BROWN
We did not know what was in his heart. The truth – he knew the truth and did not express it. I mean, I’m sorry, but this cherry-picking of statistics and responses from eight months ago is what you see oftentimes from, again, Republican pundits to attempt to sugar-coat a woeful response to a pandemic that has cost 200,000 lives.
JOHN RUDDICK
Why does Trump get the blame? Does Scott Morrison get the blame for what happened in Victoria? This is just another attempt from people who have got this mania, this anti-Trump mania. They just say, “Oh, let’s blame Trump for COVID.” Now, there’s 10 other countries which have got a higher COVID death on a per-capita basis. We see the news all the time, they say, “America’s got the highest COVID deaths.” OK, well, it’s the third-largest country on earth. There’s countries like Belgium, Spain, the UK, they’ve had higher deaths.
COLE BROWN
Please.
KIM HOGGARD
I think the verdict is out about the President’s handling of the pandemic. You know, you can cite your statistics, but there are 200,000 people dead in America because of this pandemic.
JOHN RUDDICK
Yes.
KIM HOGGARD
They’ve had more infections, a higher infection rate, and more deaths and they are the leading democracy, the richest country on the planet, yet this is the result.
JOHN RUDDICK
Why is it his fault?
KIM HOGGARD
Now, of course a pandemic is going to need federal and national leadership. He has said himself, “I am not responsible,” he has abdicated his responsibility in handling this and left it to all of the states to come up with some sort of solution. And you compare that with Australia, where you have to hand it to Scott Morrison, he learned his lesson after the bushfires, he got his act together, he called together a National Cabinet, and they attacked this thing – together, nonpartisan, no politics involved.
Now it’s breaking down a little bit because of the pressure of the months and months and months of this but people are working hard in a nonpartisan manner, a bipartisan manner, and that is to be commended in this country.
JOHN RUDDICK
It should be nonpartisan, so why blame Trump?
KIM HOGGARD
And I hope Australians will be proud of that, but Americans are not proud of the response that they’ve had.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kylie, can I just ask you about the responsibility of the President? I mean, on April 23, he stood up and started talking about using disinfectant against COVID-19. No matter what you want to say about him shooting from the hip, I mean, 200,000 people almost are dead, all of the statistics in America suggest that the death toll would be less if they’d introduced compulsory mask wearing, we know from the experience here in Australia that through collaboration between the states and Federal Government, you can get better outcomes. Is it right to hold him responsible for the failures in America?
KYLIE MORRIS
Yes. I think he took, though, a political punt. I accept that it’s a very difficult problem to manage but he is the president, and I think the biggest challenge that most observers have of the way in which he’s handled it vis-a-vis the way that Scott Morrison, for example, has is his dismissal of science. So the fact that he said, “Masks? Ah, who really needs masks?” You have...
JOHN RUDDICK
Lots of people have changed their view on masks.
KYLIE MORRIS
You know, the head of the CDC appearing before Congress just a couple of days ago saying, look, it is absolutely critical, these masks are almost better than a vaccine, we should all be wearing them. And then suddenly Donald Trump, within the day, is correcting on the record what the CDC boss meant to say. I mean, the confusion is phenomenal. And, you know, 200,000 dead. One would have imagined that’s why he was behind in the polls, I would argue, but I think the Ruth Bader Ginsburg situation changes that now.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, let’s take our next question. It comes from Jennifer Waltmon.
JENNIFER WALTMON
As an American expat with dual citizenship between the US and Australia and someone that’s lived here for nearly 14 years, here in Sydney, I’m very worried about the upcoming federal election. I’m prepared to vote for Biden and Harris because under Trump’s administration, my home country has become a very dismal and scary nation. My question is for John Ruddick. As a Trump supporter, do you fear the further damage that another four years in office will not only do to Americans but to the allies of America, like Australia?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, OK, let’s talk about the allies of America. The two previous presidents blew up the Middle East. George Bush, I believe, had good intentions. He thought he could bring democracy to Iraq. And it was a massive disaster. Now, after about five years, they had stabilised Iraq, and then Obama comes in and pulls out, and what do we get? ISIS. Now, Donald Trump, Donald Trump and his administration have performed a historic miracle in the Middle East. Bahrain and the UAE have both had a peace deal with Israel. No-one saw this coming. All the geniuses in the foreign...
HAMISH MACDONALD
He did promise it many, many times.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, hang on. Now, when President Clinton and Jimmy Carter organised a peace deal between Israel and Egypt and then the peace deal with Jordan, the world stopped for three weeks, it was the biggest deal in the world, OK? Now, when we had these peace deals with these small Gulf states, it hardly got any attention. Now, it is so massive what he’s done there, and it’s all Trump. It is all Trump. It wasn’t anybody. This is the key point.
Those states, those little countries did it with the blessing because Saudi Arabia told them to. They don’t do anything without Saudi Arabia. This means in Trump’s second term, I believe in Trump’s second term – and I believe he will get re-elected – I believe that Saudi Arabia itself, in many ways the leader of the Islamic world, will recognise Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state.
Now, could we imagine that if that happened? Wouldn’t that be fantastic? And it would be because of Trump. And he’s done a good job in the North Korean Peninsula. Now, what about domestically? You say you’re worried about what’s happened in America.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Quickly get to the point, please.
JOHN RUDDICK
OK, OK. Now, under Obama, the economy was stagnant. Big business boomed.
KIM HOGGARD
That’s not true.
JOHN RUDDICK
Small business and unemployment was stagnant. It is true, it is true. Trump comes in and small business explodes because he cuts taxes so much and wages grew. Wages grew, which haven’t done for decades. Grew $7,000, on average, for the average American. And then COVID got inflated.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, you’re doing a great job as a spokesperson for the Trump Administration.
KIM HOGGARD
John, by the end of this show, you’re going to catch up with Donald Trump in the number of misleading statements that you’ve made. Obama did have a growing economy.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
It was just barely beginning to grow, but it was stagnant and it was the slowest...
KIM HOGGARD
2.5%.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
And it was the slowest...
KIM HOGGARD
He had to bring that country out of the global financial crisis.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’m just going to bring another member of our audience into this conversation. Suzanne Meli is an American who’s lived here since 1990 with her family. What are you thinking about doing if Trump wins?
SUZANNE MELI
Rescinding my citizenship.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Why?
SUZANNE MELI
Well, let me say I’m a proud American. I... I... And I’m a staunch supporter of voting around the world. I continue to tell my daughter, who’s also a dual citizen, one of the best rights you can have is to vote. People go to war over voting. So, it is a very difficult decision that I’m looking at. I’m a proud American of what America was and I’m a proud American of what America can be. I am not a proud American of what America is right now. So...
HAMISH MACDONALD
What is it about... America right now?
SUZANNE MELI
It’s... It’s disrespectful. It’s divisive. It is... It’s led by a man who is... running it like his TV show. It’s embarrassing.
HAMISH MACDONALD
So, what do you make of what John... I mean, he puts a very passionate argument forward about why Trump is great and making America great again.
SUZANNE MELI
I respect his opinion. I don’t agree with it. I lived in Washington, D.C., for many years. You know, it’s... One of the biggest part of the decisions, however, is the tax that, as Americans, you have to pay, every year, only two countries in the world – America and I believe Eritrea – and it’s onerous. You have to have...
HAMISH MACDONALD
You have to keep paying taxes, or are eligible to pay taxes?
SUZANNE MELI
You have to file a tax return, you have to pay your taxes, superannuation gets taxed, ‘cause they don’t recognise that in America. So, between what’s happening there and how I feel about it and I’m putting this money out every single year... I can’t get over there to see my 92-year-old mother. I’m thinking...you know?
HAMISH MACDONALD
What would it mean... Americans are so proud. What would it mean to you to actually give up your...
SUZANNE MELI
It would hurt. It would hurt a lot. It’s petrifying. I might not get back to see my mother if I have to.
HAMISH MACDONALD
There’s a lot of Americans...
SUZANNE MELI
Clearly I sound like an American. I’ve been here 30 years and people still say, “Are you enjoying your holiday?”
HAMISH MACDONALD
Out of interest, a lot of Americans here tonight. How many of you are considering this sort of thing? A few of you.
SUZANNE MELI
Thought about it, yeah.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Eleanore? You told me before this show went on air that you’re still thinking about it.
ELEANORE WELLS
I was thinking...I said I was thinking about becoming a dual citizen. But that... If Trump were to win, that would absolutely escalate my application to become a citizen of Australia. I’m not sure I’m at the point of rescinding, legally, my American citizenship, but in my heart, it certainly would be rescinded.
HAMISH MACDONALD
What scares you about going home at this point?
ELEANORE WELLS
I’m terrified of going home. I’m terrified of being shot by the police. I’m terrified of... crazy suburban people yelling at me and accosting me. I hate the divisiveness in the country. I hate the tone. It’s just bad and it’s ugly.
HAMISH MACDONALD
When we watch the images on the television screens here, we obviously think it’s a long way away, that reality is far from us. Australians tend to think Americans and guns are pretty mad. What’s the reality for an individual that thinks about returning home to that?
ELEANORE WELLS
Even though I live here, I feel like I’m right there. I feel all the tense... all the tension and the strain and even as I’m talking about it... I mean, I thought I was just coming to sit in the audience and here I am getting all emotional, because you’re asking me about things that are very close to me and dear to my heart. The people that I love, my family and my friends. Um... I hate what America has become right now and I’m hoping that it’s very temporary, even though... there’s an expression, the evils have become unleashed. So, who knows if we can ever get back to where we...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Are there genuinely dark moments for you when you think about your country, reflect on your country? I mean, have you shed a tear thinking about it?
ELEANORE WELLS
Absolutely. It’s terrifying. This is my partner here. I won’t even allow him and his friends to discuss Trump in my presence because at a social event, it can totally turn the entire tenor of the evening for me. It’s just...it’s not something to be taken lightly.
HAMISH MACDONALD
What’s your question for the panel tonight?
ELEANORE WELLS
My question for the panel is, regardless of whether Trump wins or not, has he shown a much smarter autocrat how it’s done? Like, could we have another Hitler or some other horrendous... It doesn’t seem far-fetched to me. I’m worried...
HAMISH MACDONALD
That’s a pretty extreme comparison to draw.
ELEANORE WELLS
Is it?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Well, Hitler...
ELEANORE WELLS
Is it?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Hitler was responsible for the death of six million Jews.
ELEANORE WELLS
Is it extreme? I don’t think it’s extreme because...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Trump hasn’t done anything like that.
ELEANORE WELLS
Hitler didn’t start out this big. It was a small thing and it grew. So just... Let me finish. So, he... We don’t know at what point in the trajectory it is. But it doesn’t sound far-fetched to me at all.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK. Cole?
COLE BROWN
Yeah, I actually... I totally agree. I mean, you know, Hitler obviously has been mentioned as a major and extreme example. But the sort of descent into fascism, the descent into chaos is a gradual one. And in the history of empires, America is not that old. So, I think that this understanding, this sort of belief that the music will keep playing forever and we’ll stay... That’s just not true. I think democracies ultimately decline when they’re not tended to. And...and...what’s happening right now, you’re seeing sort of day in and day out as precedent is violated, Donald Trump sort of dismantling that democracy.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Barbara, Trump as an autocrat – do you buy that characterisation?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
No. Let’s look at a couple of things. I too am an American, love America, always vote. I... There are few things that I get excited about as much as my vote. But America started on what I think of as the three big Cs – Christianity, the US Constitution and also... What’s the third one? Christianity, US Constitution...
HAMISH MACDONALD
You really need to remember the third one, Barbara, you’re on live television.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
..and also capitalism. I sound like Mitt Romney now, right? I’m going to get rid of these two. And the other is, you know, also the...capitalism. But even though I’m an independent, and I have been for many, many years, most of the time, I voted with the Democrats. But I feel like what the Democrat Party was many years ago, I didn’t leave those ideals and ideologies, I feel like the Democratic Party has left me. Why do we have so much black-on-black crime in these cities that Obama wouldn’t talk about? We had a Democratic convention just a couple of weeks ago. From May 25th, Black Lives Matter – that’s when George Floyd was killed and held down for 8.5 minutes – he was killed, and from May 25th, right through the Democratic Convention, not one word. That was in August, the third week in August, just a couple of weeks ago. Not one mention of the demonstrations, and all of the terror that it has caused in so many cities, was mentioned at all. And depending on what station you watch, you didn’t see a lot of the violence on CNN and other stations. You look at a few channels, and if you look around...
COLE BROWN
No.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
..you could see where there were killings and thugs and all.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’m just going to bring Kylie in here.
KYLIE MORRIS
Having covered Black Lives Matter...
HAMISH MACDONALD
You were covering it... Do you want to just fact check that for us?
KYLIE MORRIS
Yeah. People...there is media of all stripes within those moments. And, you know, indeed, a number of reporters were injured during their coverage of that. In fact, I think someone from MSNBC. So, clearly, these things are being broadcast. I think what’s interesting to me, politically, as an observer, is that Donald Trump has been very effective, clearly, at conflating the peaceful protesters with those who are lighting fires and enacting violence. And he’s now created this choice, which is...
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Donald Trump...
KYLIE MORRIS
I’m sorry, can I just finish? The choice is, you’re either with the police or you’re with the Black Lives Matter, you know, kind of...people with violent tendencies on the left. And I think Joe Biden is trying to answer that by saying, “Look, you can support people who argue against systemic racism” – something that’s even been acknowledged by George W. Bush, in fact, recently, at the time of those protests – “you can acknowledge that that’s real, and at the same time, you can criticise the violence.”
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, let’s take our next question. It’s a video from Craig Pett in Coburg North, Victoria.
CRAIG PETT, COBURG NORTH, VIC
Given that the corporate world, academia, and mainstream media are beholden to the progressive left, many conservatives and Trump supporters, in order not to jeopardise their careers, tend to keep their cards close to their chests and do not reveal their true voting intentions, even in polls. So, the polls showing that Biden is in front could be inaccurate, and it might be that Trump will end up winning quite comfortably. What do you think?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kim Hoggard?
KIM HOGGARD
I know there’s been a lot of discussion about the 2016 polls and whether they were inaccurate or not. But I think, really, if you looked at that carefully, the national polls were accurate in 2016, and that was reflected in the popular vote being won by Hillary Clinton. The question that happened in 2016 was around the state polling.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Polling is pretty sophisticated, and it does look at the state-by-state breakdown and does tend to give forecasts about how the states will go and, therefore, which way the presidency will go.
KIM HOGGARD
Yeah.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Do you trust the polls this time?
KIM HOGGARD
I do, because the mistakes that were made by pollsters back in 2016 have been corrected. They underestimated the shy voter that Craig is talking about. Those shy voters don’t exist anymore. You know, everybody’s pretty up-front about where they stand. And, really, the undecided voter, there’s only about 3% of those. So, we pretty much know how people are going to vote. I’ve never seen an election where, so far out – and we haven’t even had the first debate yet – but, pretty much, people are locked in to where they’re going to vote. And I think...so far, I think they are reflecting a fair amount of accuracy.
HAMISH MACDONALD
John, do you accept that there’s unlikely to be as many shy Trump voters this time? Do you think the polls are getting it wrong again?
JOHN RUDDICK
Oh, absolutely. No question. Look, the national polls are bad for Trump. The national polls in September 2020 are worse for Trump than they were in September 2016. But Hillary focused on winning the national vote, Donald Trump was smart enough to win the battleground states. Hillary didn’t even go to Wisconsin. Now, there is no question that, with all this violence, which is being downplayed here, but, I’m sorry, the violence is widespread, and it’s ongoing, and it is turning people off, particularly in the Midwest. I believe the shy Trump voters are particularly strong in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Sorry, who are you accusing of playing down the violence?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well... Well, sorry, I meant, like, saying it’s not as widespread. I mean, I feel there is a dispute on the panel about how widespread it is.
HAMISH MACDONALD
But who are you saying is downplaying the violence?
JOHN RUDDICK
Look, sorry, it wasn’t a major point.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
CNN, the media in general.
HAMISH MACDONALD
You said here, so I’m just curious as to who you think here is downplaying the violence?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, except for Barbara and I, I thought everybody was saying that we are inflating the violence – that Trump is inflating the violence. Now... What is that...? Your question was about the shy Trump voter. This... We saw a shy conservative voter...
HAMISH MACDONALD
I just think I need to give these people the opportunity to respond, because you seem to be saying that people on this panel are downplaying the violence. And I just feel that it’s right...
JOHN RUDDICK
That it’s not as widespread...
COLE BROWN
I am happy to bear the mantle of the person downplaying what he describes as the level of violence. Like, I can be that person. And the reason I can be that person is because fact is on my side. I mean, like, reports clearly show that between 93% and 95% of protests for BLM have been peaceful. That said, of people polled, 42% believe that BLM – the organisation itself – its intent is to create violence. So, to say that the media is downplaying the violence, I think that that’s actually the exact opposite of what the case is.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is Trump wrong, though, when he says that there is sort of Antifa, anti-fascist groups...
COLE BROWN
Yes. Yeah, yeah. Just to be clear, he is wrong. Antifa exists, but he... But what he often attempts to do...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Is in some of these places, like Portland, isn’t it?
COLE BROWN
Yeah, I mean, Antifa exists. One, I think to call it a group is probably to give it too much credit. I mean, there’s not clear, sort of, organisation there. But, two, what he often attempts to do is create some degree of parity between it and white nationalist organisations, of which there is none. The extent of violence that white nationalist organisations are responsible for in these places is sort of off the charts as compared to this sort of loose assembly of people.
JOHN RUDDICK
Name one. Name one example of right-wing violence this year.
KIM HOGGARD
And let’s remember...
JOHN RUDDICK
Name one. No, hang on.
KIM HOGGARD
John, the national security...
JOHN RUDDICK
I want this...
KIM HOGGARD
..intelligence agencies all say...
JOHN RUDDICK
We were just told that there’s lots of right-wing violence.
KIM HOGGARD
..that white domestic militia are the biggest single threat... terrorist threat in the United States.
JOHN RUDDICK
Name me one. Name me one.
COLE BROWN
There was a shooting just, like, two weeks ago.
KIM HOGGARD
The FBI, everyone says it.
JOHN RUDDICK
Right-wing people, conservative people are peaceful people. Now, right now...right now, Mitch McConnell’s home is being surrounded by a mob.
KIM HOGGARD
No-one’s saying that.
JOHN RUDDICK
This... Now...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Let’s just cool it, please. Kylie, could you just come in here?
JOHN RUDDICK
Give me an example of right-wing violence this year. Give me one example. You can’t.
KIM HOGGARD
Charlottesville, Virginia, to start with.
COLE BROWN
That wasn’t this year. There was one two weeks ago.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Folks, just let me interrupt you there and bring Kylie in just for a little sense of calm in this conversation.
KYLIE MORRIS
I’ll do my best. I mean, Kenosha, Wisconsin – I think there is a fairly clear example of someone who came to defend territory and land.
JOHN RUDDICK
No, that person was about to be shot himself. That’s quite...
KYLIE MORRIS
Well, OK. You can frame that, but you wanted an example of violence. There’s an example of violence. Certainly, if you cover these protests, generally, standing back in the corner – this was true for me in Ferguson, this was true for me in Baltimore – up on the roofs, you know, on the awnings, guarding shops, are white vigilantes. So, they are men who’ve turned up, and they’re carrying semiautomatic weapons...
JOHN RUDDICK
They didn’t start the violence, they were reacting to violence.
KYLIE MORRIS
And they linger on the side of these protests. And it helps to... And I think the militarisation of the police is also, actually, to be honest, something that really amps up the violence in these... or the potential for violence in these situations.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK, let’s take our next question tonight. It’s from Sophie York.
SOPHIE YORK
It has become clear that China is determined to spread its control regardless of the interests or wishes of many sovereign nations. Ports, waterways, debt traps, universities, food chains, water, gas and electricity – in our region and in Australia. Even some MPs are becoming more and more under the control of the People’s Republic of China. Like them or loathe them, Biden and Trump are quite different. Which leader would offer the best hope for the rest of the world to remain free, given the fact that most people do not wish to live under an autocratic communist power with an ongoing history of human rights abuses? And why? Which leader and why?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kim, who’s going to be tougher on China?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Can I take... Can I have a go?
HAMISH MACDONALD
Let’s just let Kim answer this first, please.
KIM HOGGARD
Well, we know that Donald Trump likes to think that he can deal with authoritarian leaders. And he certainly started out his relationship with Xi Jinping with a lot of confidence, thinking that he could do a great trade deal, and... and now that’s completely gone sour for him. He is not a president... John Bolton, his own former national security adviser, said that Donald Trump does not have a grand strategy or a policy. He doesn’t come from a policy background. The Republican Party, at their convention this year, did not even release a new party platform to let voters know what the vision is for the Trump Administration in the second term. So, it’s really hard to say what he would do when it comes to China, but we know...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Do you credit Trump, though, with extracting things from the Chinese that previous presidents said they wanted to, but ultimately didn’t? On trade, for example, intellectual property.
KIM HOGGARD
He has...he has an issue with the trade deficit. But in fact, America has always run with a trade deficit with many countries. The trade deficit may be a bit high. And a lot of Republicans don’t like that. They just look at that figure, and say, “We want to bring it down.” But when you look at it a little bit more closely, you have to realise that although... You know, America is a huge, consuming country. That’s how it makes... That’s why it’s the greatest... biggest economy on Earth. So, they get a lot of stuff from China, and that’s why there’s a trade deficit. But, you know, China is also investing in America. So, that money comes back in another form. It’s not just that there’s just a trade deficit.
HAMISH MACDONALD
This is a question about Trump versus Biden.
KIM HOGGARD
Yep.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kylie, who do you think will end up being tougher on China? Biden has put out some pretty assertive advertisements during this campaign, showing what he would do with China if he were elected. Do you think that they’re in a race, as it were, to show themselves to be tougher on China?
KYLIE MORRIS
I think there’s a difference between being tough and being effective, and certainly, we’ve seen from Trump previously, I guess I would look at examples of his conduct in the past. So, he...he engages with strong men – he engages with Erdogan, he engages with Putin. That hasn’t changed, that hasn’t helped the people in Syria when it comes to Putin. It hasn’t helped the Kurds when it comes to Erdogan. We saw him... I was there in Singapore when he met the North Korean leader and was apparently bringing peace, you know, via that peace deal – a peace deal which has really gone cold, effectively. So...
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, there’s no nuclear bombs coming out of North Korea, anymore.
KYLIE MORRIS
Well, they still have between 20 and 60 nuclear bombs.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, the tension has reduced. It was unusual diplomacy, what Trump did in North Korea. It was very unorthodox, but it defused the North Korean Peninsula. Thank you, Donald Trump.
KYLIE MORRIS
It almost took the country to war in the first place in order to reach this kind of point of conversation.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, it worked.
KYLIE MORRIS
It worked?
JOHN RUDDICK
Yeah.
KYLIE MORRIS
We’ll see whether the missiles... when the missiles start flying again.
JOHN RUDDICK
I remember a time when the left was pro-peace, pro-world-peace. Shouldn’t they...
KYLIE MORRIS
Sorry, are you saying I’m not pro-peace?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, I’m not saying that, but I’m saying you’re not celebrating it. You should be celebrating that the South Koreans...
KYLIE MORRIS
I’m not celebrating...I don’t think there’s been a fundamental change in the behaviour of North Korea.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, there has been.
KYLIE MORRIS
I don’t think there’s been a fundamental change in the way...
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, over the last 30 years...
KIM HOGGARD
They’re continuing their nuclear program, and they’re assisting Iran...
JOHN RUDDICK
Oh, obviously.
KIM HOGGARD
..to build their nuclear up. And even now, the reports are that Iran is quite close to completing a nuclear capability...
JOHN RUDDICK
Oh, well, Iran is a different story, but in North Korea...
KIM HOGGARD
..and that’s from North Korea.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’m just going to call time on this and let Barbara in. I know you’ve got something to add.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Well, you know, we can only see what Trump has done. You know, he... I go, not so much by what he says, and we know he’s loose at the lips, but don’t tell me – show me. And what has he shown us? He’s gone in, and he did start a conversation with Kim Jong-un in Korea. And the peace, as you’ve said, John, of what he’s just done with the UAE, and also, he’s getting other countries in the Middle East, in Bahrain, that’s come in. So, he can stand up to others. Can you imagine Joe Biden trying to have a serious conversation at this point in time with a Kim Jong-un, Putin or...or...you know, China?
KIM HOGGARD
Well, I could...
BARBARA HEINEBACK
And what is Harris going to do? Where is her policy background?
HAMISH MACDONALD
So, Kim, where does this leave Australia? ‘Cause I do want to focus here on where this leaves Australia. We have these two presidents saying that they’re going to be tougher on China. Obviously, that relationship has huge impact on us, and particularly our relationship with China. Where do we end up?
KIM HOGGARD
Being tough on China is not going to get results. I completely agree with Kylie. How effective are you going to be if you’re just going to be tough? You have to be strategic, and you have to recognise Chinese culture. George H. W. Bush, for whom I worked at the State Department, at a time when the world order was changing dramatically – we had new relationships with the Soviet Union, we had the breaking down of apartheid, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the opening up of the Eastern Europe, and the collapse of the Soviet Union... I mean, that was an awful lot for the world to manage.
HAMISH MACDONALD
But that’s a very different set of circumstances...
KIM HOGGARD
So, it’s about managing that.
HAMISH MACDONALD
..to an ascendant China.
KIM HOGGARD
It’s about managing China. Australia has a big role to play in this because if there’s a Trump administration... Well, we know he’s an isolationist, and it’s about America first. And so, there is not going to be a trade agreement there. Australia is going to have to be... As part of the Five Eyes security group, they’re going to have to be the eyes for America down here. They’re going to have to be... They’re going to have to stand up for themselves, for what they want to see from China, but they’re going to have to realise that none of this is going to work unless there is a coalition of nations, an alliance of nations.
And what Joe Biden comes from, the same sort of mould, say, as George H. W. Bush, is that he is an institutionalist, he’s a multilateralist, he believes in alliances, and he believes in working together regionally to try to deal with the issues. Now, both Republicans and Democrats think that dealing with China is important. So, that is going to be on the agenda, but how effective they are at doing it, whether it’s the strong-man tactic, up against another strong man, he’s not going... President Trump probably won’t have the backing within his own Republican Party to be able to do that effectively.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Kylie, if there is another Trump term of the Trump presidency, can Australia rely on the alliance in the way that it has for... ever since the Second World War?
KYLIE MORRIS
I’ve got to say, I think, of all the democratic nations, probably Australia has one of the closest relationships with the Trump Administration. You know, I don’t know whether we’re back at kind of the George W. Bush calling Howard the kind of ‘deputy sheriff’ stage. But certainly, you know, perhaps we’re up there with Boris Johnson, for example, at the moment. So, Australia is in a pretty good place given the kinds of places it could be on that list. But I would also say that he is unpredictable, and you never quite know where his next foreign policy target is going to be. So, we are close, but that can also put us in a situation of risk.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK. Alright, let’s take our next question. It’s a video from Ollie Grohs in Caulfield North, Victoria.
OLLIE GROHS, CAULFIELD NORTH, VIC
Hi. My name’s Ollie Grohs, and I’m currently in Year 12. My question for the panel is, what do you think the reason is for America becoming so polarised in the political landscape over the last 10 years? And subsequently, what can the next administration do to bring America back together?
HAMISH MACDONALD
And incidentally, Ollie wins the prize for the best mullet of the evening.
KYLIE MORRIS
Me, me, me, me, me.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Cole?
COLE BROWN
So, that’s an incredibly complex question. I think that there is a confluence of influences. One clear one is, I think, that as we plunged into, you know, the worst recession that we’ve had in a generation, that that exposed many of the sort of... where we were unprepared to enter, sort of, a 21st century economy. So, you have sort of people that feel as though they have been left out of this American project, looking at sort of these gilded cities on the coast, and feeling as though there are the people, the elites, that are enjoying the spoils. When you add to that mix... And perhaps that mix was ripe for a leader like a Trump to come in, and expose and profit off of those divisions. You know, sort of speak to the frustrations of, in his words, sort of “the little guy”, and ultimately benefit from it.
HAMISH MACDONALD
But this is a question about looking forward. Can you see, whatever the next administration is...
COLE BROWN
Yeah.
HAMISH MACDONALD
..bringing the country back together in any way?
COLE BROWN
So, this almost goes back to a question that we had earlier around dispute around the election, in my mind, because in the short and medium term, my frank answer is no. I think that these next few months, 2021, will be tough. I don’t see any immediate resolution as we continue to deal with so many of these issues raised in the pandemic. In the longer term, you know, the appeal that Biden is attempting to make to so many voters is exactly that – that he can come in and sort of calm the place down for four years before his successor comes in. And I do think that that is possible. I’d like to believe that sort of that unifying effect is still possible.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Barbara, do you think that’s possible? That Biden could bring people together?
BARBARA HEINEBACK
Well, Biden’s not doing much of anything, and my concern about Biden, because he’s lost his ability to lead... There was a time when, yes, I do believe that he would be one of the few senators, at this point, that I’d say could work both sides of the fence. But I think we can take a lesson from what the late Scalia said, that, “I don’t attack people, I attack ideas.” And some very good people can have some very bad ideas, you know, when you’re not necessarily agreeing with the other side.
But we do need to start to speak to the other side, and stop the name-calling. And as soon as one party says something – “Oh, he’s a racist,” or, “He’s a genaphobic.” “Xenophobic”, sorry, whatever the issues are. So, it’s time for Congress and Senate to start doing their work again, and stop the impeachments and just finding tags to point the finger at someone. But let’s get something done because Trump has had a terrific run at, you know, doing...creating and getting a lot done. Trump probably accomplished more of his promises, certainly in the first 47 months than Biden has done in 47 years.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK.
BARBARA HEINEBACK
And I have to say, he’s probably accomplished more in his first 47 days in office...
HAMISH MACDONALD
I want to bring John in at this point...
BARBARA HEINEBACK
..to Biden.
HAMISH MACDONALD
..because we are running out of time. If Trump does win again...
JOHN RUDDICK
Yeah.
HAMISH MACDONALD
..can you see him being a different president in his second term?
JOHN RUDDICK
No. No, it will be more of the same because...
HAMISH MACDONALD
No more conciliatory?
JOHN RUDDICK
No, because the thing about Donald Trump is he doesn’t...it’s not an act. Everything he does is authentic. He’s the real thing. Now, 99% of politicians are putting on a show. They’re putting on a face. Trump’s just raw. So, no, there won’t be an attempt...
HAMISH MACDONALD
So, if he’s raw and it’s not an act, which one is him? Is it the one that tells Bob Woodward, “I’ve been playing it down, this is really serious, I know it’s deadly,” or is it the one that goes out in public a few days later and says, “This is nothing, this is just a flu”? Which one is the real one?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, OK. That is a good question. OK, and, look, I think what we have to do is...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Please engage with that.
JOHN RUDDICK
Yes, yes.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Which one is the real one? If you say it’s not an act, which one is the real one?
JOHN RUDDICK
We have to take Trump’s comments in aggregate. So, if he speaks on a subject, we need to look at his various thoughts on that subject because he doesn’t give rehearsed lines.
HAMISH MACDONALD
That’s a pretty creative defence, isn’t it?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, I’m sorry. I’m sorry. Look, when President Obama couldn’t give a speech, or didn’t...never gave a speech, publicly at least, without a teleprompter. And, look, George Bush was the same.
KYLIE MORRIS
Sorry, Trump uses teleprompters all the time.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Yeah.
JOHN RUDDICK
Trump uses teleprompters. He uses...
KYLIE MORRIS
This is a nonsense. You see them on the...
HAMISH MACDONALD
To be very clear, I was at the Republican National Convention where he gave his speech last time...
JOHN RUDDICK
Fully teleprompted.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Yeah.
JOHN RUDDICK
OK. But...but when he gives his campaign rallies, he has a teleprompter there, and sometimes he doesn’t even refer to it for half an hour. OK, in fact, his record of not referring to the... to the teleprompter is 58 minutes.
HAMISH MACDONALD
I’m sorry, with respect, John, we’re running out of time. I do want a...a frank answer from you on this, though...
JOHN RUDDICK
Yes, yes.
HAMISH MACDONALD
..because he clearly says some things when he thinks he’s talking to Bob Woodward in private.
JOHN RUDDICK
Yeah.
HAMISH MACDONALD
And then he says a totally different thing when he’s out giving the press briefing.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, look...
HAMISH MACDONALD
Do you acknowledge that there is a bit of an act?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, no. No, I think he just... He just...he just sort of speaks what’s in his mind.
KIM HOGGARD
Are his 20,000 lies an act? Is that part of...? Or is that the real thing?
JOHN RUDDICK
No, that’s just partisan... That’s just partisanship. It’s...
KIM HOGGARD
Oh, so that’s the act, or is that the real thing?
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, look, he’s been on the scene for five and a half years now, as a president or presidential candidate. If you can’t work out where he’s coming from, we’re just trying to knit-pick.
KIM HOGGARD
Well...
JOHN RUDDICK
It’s just another mania.
KIM HOGGARD
I worked for Ronald Reagan, and he never told a lie to the American people.
JOHN RUDDICK
Well, I loved Ronald Reagan, too, OK? Now, Trump is clearly not Ronald Reagan.
KIM HOGGARD
Not knowingly.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Let’s wind this up. Kylie, final word to you. Can you see any coming-together of the American public in the next term, under either of these men as president?
KYLIE MORRIS
Not in the short term, no. And I think that one thing that we haven’t talked about is the effect of cable news and Facebook...
KIM HOGGARD
That’s right.
KYLIE MORRIS
..and the echo chamber.
KIM HOGGARD
The disinformation.
KYLIE MORRIS
..and that kind of continually divisive message that’s just being spilled into people’s time lines on a regular basis. So, it’s not only the voices that are going in, but it’s the way that that’s being spread and shared with intent. So, no, not immediately. I... But America is a brilliant, creative, extraordinary place, and they will find their way. I think that’s the other thing to remind ourselves...
JOHN RUDDICK
Hear, hear!
KYLIE MORRIS
..that...you know, that this is a moment of great political division, but, my God, what America has been through in its history!
KIM HOGGARD
Yes.
KYLIE MORRIS
It is a place of great hope, and we should try and cling onto that, you know, for our American friends here, but also our American friends there.
KIM HOGGARD
It would have been nice to have had a discussion about how it got here, because it has taken decades, and it has had a lot to do with the polarisation in the media that has fed a lot of disinformation, a lot of Americans have been brain-washed by a lot, listening to it. And that’s been a real problem. And then, of course, we’ve had dysfunction in both political parties. And so there is no bipartisanship left. And really, to paraphrase Paul Keating, I do think that Donald Trump was the president America had to have to wake themselves up to the dysfunction that they have.
But I agree with Cole – it’s going to take... And you, Kylie, that it’s going to take some time for America to heal the wounds. They have systemic problems within their democracy and the system that has led to this moment. And let’s remember that in the Electoral College, it has an imbalance that favours the small-populated states over the larger-populated states.
HAMISH MACDONALD
OK.
KIM HOGGARD
And that’s creating this imbalance in the elected officials and their influence in policy.
HAMISH MACDONALD
Well, you’ve all set yourselves up for a sequel. We’re definitely going to have all of you back. A huge thanks to our incredible panel tonight – Kim Hoggard, Cole Brown, Barbara Heineback, John Ruddick, and Kylie Morris. Please give them all a round of applause.
I think we all need to go and take a good cold shower after that at a very safe distance. Thanks to those of you here in the studio – great to have some more of you back this week – and to those of you at home for sending in your stories and questions. Please keep them coming. Until next week, a very good night.
Panellist
Kim HoggardPanellist
Barbara HeinebackPanellist
Cole BrownPanellist
John RuddickPanellist
Kylie Morris
Six weeks out from the US Presidential Election there’s one question on everyone’s mind - will Donald Trump be in office for four more years?
His handling of COVID-19 has been widely condemned and racial tensions have sparked protests in many American cities.
Polls suggest Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading the race, but President Trump has form when it comes to defying predictions.
Joining host Hamish Macdonald - key figures who’ve worked inside the White House on both sides of the political divide.
How serious is the threat of civil war? What would a second Trump term look like? And how would it affect us in Australia and the long term power struggle with China?
Discuss the Questions
Here are the questions our panel faced this week. You can discuss their answers on the Q+A Facebook Page.
RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEATH IMPACT
(2:08)
Javiera Scarratt asked: The world has suffered a devastating loss in the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a giant in the fight for gender equality and the rights of minorities. Her death leaves an opening on the Supreme Court and has the power to dramatically reshape the presidential race, as Trump and Republicans in the Senate begin making moves to fill it. In light of this, what will be different about the last 44 days of the race compared to what we've seen so far?
TRUMP AND POSTAL VOTING
(07:41)
Marla Minow asked: It is very likely that the vote totals will not be known on the night of the election, quite possibly not known for many days or even weeks post-election day. And we have seen Donald Trump foment distrust and spread disinformation over the past months about postal ballots. My question for the panel: Do you believe Donald Trump will call on his base to be calm and patient or do you think he will create chaos?
DEMOCRATS STATE RIOTING
(16:48)
Matt Burns asked: Given that the riots are predominantly in minority-heavy areas, why do Democrat mayors seem so reluctant to stop them?
TRUMP - ECONOMIC RECOVERY
(23:03)
Darren Gatcliffe asked: The Democrats have had power in the senate for decades and problems with poverty, health affordance and wage growth have only ever increased on their watch. Donald Trump has only been president for four years now. How are all of America’s issues all his fault? Why doesn’t anyone mention his success with employment for all Americans, his listing of more health initiatives and reforms and the performance of the American economy in the first four years of his term?
US REPUTATION & FURTHER DAMAGE
(30:12)
Jennifer Waltmon asked: As an American expat with dual citizenship between the US and Australia, and someone that’s been living for nearly 14 years in Sydney, I worry about the upcoming election. I’m prepared to vote for Biden and Harris because under Trump’s administration, my home country has become a dismal and scary nation. My question is for John Ruddick, as a Trump supporter, do you fear the further damage that another four years in office will do not only to Americans, but to the allies of America like Australia?
TRUMP - DANGEROUS OR SMART?
(37:42)
Eleanore Wells asked: Regardless of whether he wins or not, has Trump shown much smarter autocrats how to do it? Could there be another Hitler?
INACCURATE POLLS
(42:16)
Craig Pett asked: Given that the corporate world, academia and mainstream media are beholden to the progressive left, many conservatives and Trump supporters, in order not to jeopardise their careers, tend to keep their cards close to their chests and do not reveal their true voting intentions even in polls. So the polls showing that Biden is in front could be inaccurate and Trump could end up winning quite comfortably. What do you think?
CHINA DOMINANCE
(48:27)
Sophie York asked: It has become clear that China has become determined to spread its control regardless of the interests or wishes of many sovereign nations. Ports, waterways, debt-traps, universities, food-chains, water, gas and electricity, in our region, and in Australia – even some MPs - are becoming more and more under the control of the People’s Republic of China. Like them or loathe them, Biden and Trump are quite different.
US DIVISION
(57:08)
Ollie Grohs asked: Hi, My name is Ollie Grohs and I'm currently in Year 12. My question for the panel is: What do you think is the reason America has become so polarised in the political landscape over the last 10 years and subsequently What can the next administration do to bring America back together?