Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043)
Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Archived Content
Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.
Text begins
General results
The projections for the provinces and territories include an additional component compared to the projections for Canada as a whole: interprovincial migration. For several provinces, interprovincial can have a substantial impact on population growth. It is also one of the most volatile components, as it is largely influenced by many non-demographic factors such as differentials in wages and employment opportunities among the provinces and territories.
According to the projection scenarios, most provinces and territories would experience an increase in population between 2018 and 2043 (Table 3.1). However, some Atlantic provinces and the Northwest Territories would experience a population decrease during the period in certain projection scenarios.
| Region | Historic (2018) | Projected (2043) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | Slow-aging scenario (SA) | Fast-aging scenario (FA) | ||||||
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | ||||||
| in thousands | ||||||||||
| Canada | 37,058.9 | 42,288.8 | 46,505.6 | 46,508.2 | 46,504.6 | 46,509.5 | 46,488.3 | 51,493.2 | 50,144.7 | 43,539.6 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 525.4 | 429.4 | 458.6 | 444.8 | 460.2 | 501.5 | 484.8 | 488.3 | 468.5 | 448.8 |
| Prince Edward Island | 153.2 | 177.8 | 197.4 | 197.1 | 188.7 | 188.9 | 195.5 | 220.8 | 214.2 | 183.9 |
| Nova Scotia | 959.9 | 916.9 | 993.8 | 987.6 | 960.7 | 987.9 | 1,019.2 | 1,078.9 | 1,042.1 | 952.4 |
| New Brunswick | 770.6 | 736.9 | 794.0 | 795.1 | 780.6 | 777.7 | 782.4 | 855.1 | 825.8 | 765.1 |
| Quebec | 8,390.5 | 8,707.1 | 9,472.4 | 9,479.5 | 9,507.9 | 9,479.6 | 9,410.2 | 10,361.8 | 10,064.7 | 8,989.2 |
| Ontario | 14,322.8 | 16,537.5 | 18,265.2 | 18,278.0 | 17,873.5 | 18,245.0 | 18,527.6 | 20,354.5 | 19,826.8 | 17,023.3 |
| Manitoba | 1,352.2 | 1,571.5 | 1,741.4 | 1,739.7 | 1,717.7 | 1,755.0 | 1,742.5 | 1,946.7 | 1,900.2 | 1,613.9 |
| Saskatchewan | 1,162.1 | 1,431.7 | 1,591.2 | 1,579.8 | 1,631.7 | 1,682.7 | 1,579.6 | 1,780.2 | 1,738.8 | 1,469.0 |
| Alberta | 4,307.1 | 6,027.8 | 6,619.2 | 6,726.4 | 6,849.7 | 6,409.8 | 5,924.5 | 7,303.7 | 7,152.1 | 6,164.9 |
| British Columbia | 4,991.7 | 5,615.7 | 6,224.4 | 6,139.3 | 6,388.9 | 6,319.5 | 6,656.7 | 6,942.3 | 6,753.5 | 5,789.8 |
| Yukon | 40.5 | 44.8 | 49.1 | 45.8 | 52.3 | 58.0 | 60.7 | 54.1 | 52.9 | 45.9 |
| Northwest Territories | 44.5 | 44.7 | 48.6 | 45.0 | 43.9 | 50.0 | 52.6 | 53.2 | 52.1 | 45.6 |
| Nunavut | 38.4 | 47.1 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 48.9 | 54.0 | 52.0 | 53.6 | 52.9 | 47.7 |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. | ||||||||||
The projected average annual growth rate for the period 2018/2019 to 2042/2043 (Table 3.2) varies not only from one province or territory to another but also from one scenario to another within each province or territory. With the exception of Prince Edward Island, provinces located east of Ontario show a growth rate below the national average, while the Prairie provinces are projected to experience growth above the Canadian average in all scenarios. As a result, the geographic distribution of the population within Canada (Table 3.3) could change over the next 25 years. Most scenarios indicate that the population share of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec would either decrease or remain constant, while the population of the Prairie provinces would account for an increased proportion of the national population.
| Region | Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) |
Slow-aging scenario (SA) | Fast-aging scenario (FA) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | |||||
| per thousand | |||||||||
| Canada | 5.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 6.5 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -8.0 | -5.4 | -6.6 | -5.3 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -4.6 | -6.3 |
| Prince Edward Island | 6.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 7.3 |
| Nova Scotia | -1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| New Brunswick | -1.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 |
| Quebec | 1.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 |
| Ontario | 5.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.9 |
| Manitoba | 6.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 7.1 |
| Saskatchewan | 8.4 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 13.7 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 17.2 | 16.3 | 9.4 |
| Alberta | 13.5 | 17.3 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 16.0 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 20.5 | 14.4 |
| British Columbia | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 6.0 |
| Yukon | 4.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 16.4 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 5.1 |
| Northwest Territories | 0.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 1.0 |
| Nunavut | 8.2 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 8.7 |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. | |||||||||
| Region | Historic (2018) | Projected (2043) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | Slow-aging scenario (SA) | Fast-aging scenario (FA) | ||||||
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | ||||||
| percent | ||||||||||
| Canada | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Nova Scotia | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| New Brunswick | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Quebec | 22.6 | 20.6 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.6 |
| Ontario | 38.6 | 39.1 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 38.4 | 39.2 | 39.9 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 39.1 |
| Manitoba | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Saskatchewan | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Alberta | 11.6 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 14.2 |
| British Columbia | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.3 |
| Yukon | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Northwest Territories | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Nunavut | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. | ||||||||||
In the coming decades, the population aging projected at the national level would also be experienced by each of the provinces and territories, though to varying degrees. With the exception of Quebec, Manitoba and Nunavut, all provinces and territories show an increase in their median ages during the projection period (Table 3.4). The proportion of the population aged 65 and over would also increase in all regions of Canada (Table 3.5). The most rapid increases would occur in the Atlantic provinces and the territories. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut would nevertheless have the lowest proportions of persons aged 65 and over in 2043, as was the case in 2018. Conversely, the highest proportions of seniors (aged 65 and over) in Canada in 2043 would occur in the Atlantic provinces, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick.
| Region | Historic (2018) | Projected (2043) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | Slow-aging scenario (SA) | Fast-aging scenario (FA) | ||||||
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | ||||||
| in years | ||||||||||
| Canada | 40.8 | 45.0 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 42.1 | 41.3 | 45.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 46.5 | 53.0 | 52.6 | 53.2 | 52.6 | 51.1 | 51.6 | 51.5 | 50.2 | 54.3 |
| Prince Edward Island | 43.6 | 48.1 | 47.0 | 47.2 | 47.9 | 47.4 | 46.8 | 45.4 | 44.4 | 49.2 |
| Nova Scotia | 45.1 | 49.2 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 48.9 | 48.2 | 47.7 | 46.7 | 45.5 | 50.4 |
| New Brunswick | 45.9 | 50.0 | 49.2 | 49.1 | 49.5 | 49.9 | 49.9 | 47.9 | 46.7 | 51.2 |
| Quebec | 42.5 | 46.2 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.2 | 43.3 | 42.3 | 47.3 |
| Ontario | 40.6 | 45.0 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.6 | 42.1 | 41.3 | 45.9 |
| Manitoba | 37.3 | 40.9 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 39.6 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 37.6 | 37.0 | 41.7 |
| Saskatchewan | 37.3 | 41.3 | 40.0 | 40.1 | 40.1 | 39.2 | 39.7 | 38.3 | 37.7 | 42.1 |
| Alberta | 36.9 | 41.7 | 40.6 | 40.3 | 39.9 | 40.6 | 41.0 | 39.3 | 38.8 | 42.3 |
| British Columbia | 42.2 | 47.0 | 45.8 | 46.2 | 46.0 | 46.1 | 45.7 | 43.9 | 43.1 | 47.9 |
| Yukon | 38.9 | 43.0 | 42.0 | 43.5 | 44.3 | 42.7 | 42.1 | 40.6 | 40.0 | 43.7 |
| Northwest Territories | 34.8 | 37.5 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.9 | 38.2 | 39.0 | 35.8 | 35.3 | 38.1 |
| Nunavut | 26.1 | 28.3 | 27.1 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.6 | 28.7 | 25.8 | 25.6 | 28.6 |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. | ||||||||||
| Region | Historic (2018) | Projected (2043) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | Slow-aging scenario (SA) | Fast-aging scenario (FA) | ||||||
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | ||||||
| percent | ||||||||||
| Canada | 17.2 | 24.3 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 22.5 | 21.1 | 25.9 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 20.5 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 34.4 | 33.7 | 31.9 | 32.5 | 33.0 | 30.9 | 35.8 |
| Prince Edward Island | 19.6 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 26.5 | 27.4 | 27.3 | 26.3 | 24.9 | 23.3 | 29.1 |
| Nova Scotia | 20.4 | 29.3 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 29.5 | 29.1 | 28.5 | 27.9 | 26.1 | 31.3 |
| New Brunswick | 20.8 | 30.4 | 30.1 | 30.0 | 30.5 | 30.8 | 30.8 | 29.2 | 27.4 | 32.4 |
| Quebec | 18.8 | 26.2 | 25.7 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 24.6 | 22.9 | 28.0 |
| Ontario | 16.9 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.4 | 22.6 | 21.2 | 26.1 |
| Manitoba | 15.4 | 20.4 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 18.4 | 17.2 | 21.8 |
| Saskatchewan | 15.4 | 19.6 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 17.7 | 18.4 | 17.7 | 16.5 | 20.9 |
| Alberta | 12.8 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 18.0 | 18.6 | 19.5 | 18.1 | 17.0 | 20.8 |
| British Columbia | 18.3 | 26.2 | 25.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 26.0 | 25.3 | 24.1 | 22.7 | 27.8 |
| Yukon | 11.8 | 19.2 | 18.7 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 19.1 | 18.6 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 20.6 |
| Northwest Territories | 7.9 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 16.1 | 16.3 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 13.8 | 17.0 |
| Nunavut | 3.9 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 9.4 |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. | ||||||||||
Results by province and territory
This section provides for each province and territory a brief analysis composed of a series of highlights, two figures and a table describing population growth, its sources, and the age structure of the population.
The first figure shows the projected growth according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1) and high-growth (HG) scenarios, along with the two alternative medium-growth scenarios (that is, among M2, M3, M4 and M5) showing the lowest and highest growth in 2043.Note
A table follows decomposing population growth into three components: natural increase (births minus deaths), international migratory increase (immigrants plus net non-permanent residents minus net emigrants) and interprovincial migratory increase (interprovincial in-migration minus interprovincial out-migration), for each of the nine proposed scenarios. For each of these components, crude rates are shown. Crude rates indicate the precise impact of each of the components on population growth, and are influenced by both the intensity of a demographic phenomenon and the age structure of the population.
Finally, a figure comparing four population pyramids illustrates the projected changes in the age composition of the population of each province and territory: the population in 2018 is shown along with the projected population in 2043 as per the medium-growth (M1), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios.
- Date modified: