The IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 shows the energy future we all need to focus on

We are more than a third of the way through this critical year, which could mark a turning point in the world’s efforts to address climate change. But much still needs to be done to make that happen.

As we get nearer to the COP26 Climate Change Conference in November, the IEA is fully committed to doing its part with a series of key contributions to help the world achieve the ambitious goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

So far, it has been a year of mixed signals – oscillating between reasons for great optimism and causes for deep concern.  

More countries around the world are stepping up their ambitions to tackle the climate crisis. The momentum was clear at the IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit in March, and it was affirmed at the Leaders Summit on Climate, hosted by President Joe Biden last month, where major economies including the United States, Brazil, China, the European Union, Japan and Korea made new or reinforced commitments to reduce their emissions. And just this past week, Germany strengthened its ambitions further with the goal of being close to net zero by 2045.

But as I highlighted in my remarks at the Leaders Summit on Climate, the economic rebound from last year’s deep pandemic-induced recession is being powered mainly by fossil fuels, notably coal, which is driving global emissions towards their second-highest increase in history. The golden chance that the IEA urged governments to take in March last year – that of making the economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis a sustainable one by channelling stimulus and infrastructure money into clean energy – is rapidly fading.

We cannot afford to miss any more opportunities.

Next week, the IEA will release one of the most important reports in our Agency’s nearly 50-year history – Net Zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy system. This special report will map out a detailed and cost-effective pathway for bringing global energy-related emissions to net zero in time to give the world a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5˚ C.

The Roadmap underscores that this decade is pivotal to reaching net zero by mid-century. We need to put emissions into sharp decline in the coming years through strong and credible energy policies.

Our Roadmap will set out clear milestones for what needs to happen, and when, to transform the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels into one powered overwhelmingly by renewable energy like solar and wind. It will show how this can be done successfully – by creating huge new opportunities for workers, businesses and investors – securely – without disrupting the energy supplies on which so many of us rely for our daily lives –and fairly – by ensuring that developing economies have the financing and technologies they need to carry out their transitions while bringing clean and affordable energy to all citizens.

I have made it clear to my colleagues at the IEA that the Roadmap will guide our future work as we do everything we can to help governments around the world to act on its insights, build out their own national roadmaps, and implement the policies needed to achieve their net zero goals. Naturally, the Net Zero by 2050 Emissions Scenario described in our Roadmap – a pathway in line with 1.5˚ C – will be an integral part of the World Energy Outlook 2021, our flagship annual report in the autumn, and in future editions of the WEO in the years ahead.

A closer look at the modelling behind the IEA Roadmap to Net-Zero Emissions by 2050

Before then, we will release a report on Financing Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Market and Developing Economies on 9 June. This is a critical issue – unless we quickly find ways to massively ramp up investments to deploy clean energy technologies in these economies, we will have no chance of reaching net zero globally by 2050. Our special report – carried out in collaboration with the World Bank and World Economic Forum – will offer practical solutions to improve conditions for mobilising private investment in clean energy in developing economies. In parallel, it will lay out how major economies can step up their own efforts by accelerating delivery of international public finance, which is essential to support these energy transitions.

And the IEA remains acutely aware that the journey to net zero is a collective one that affects everyone. It needs to be fair, equitable and inclusive. That is why at the start of this year I convened the Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions, which is focused on how to enable citizens to benefit from the opportunities and navigate the disruptions of the shift to a clean energy economy. Headed by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark and composed of government leaders, ministers and prominent thinkers, the Global Commission will make public its key recommendations ahead of COP26 in November.

I invite you to join us on 18 May for the livestreamed launch of the Net Zero Roadmap. We value all engagement with our work – on this report and beyond.