Since the official April-May-June seasonal drought outlook released on March 21, above normal precipitation has resulted in improving drought conditions for parts of the Four Corners, Great Plains, and Midwest. Given above normal precipitation chances are favored through mid-April, in addition to the recent improvements from above normal precipitation, parts of the Desert Southwest and the Corn Belt are primed for additional improvements by the end of April. However, precipitation signals remain weak beyond next month in both regions. Therefore, improvements are likely to be limited to the month of April, with persistence favored thereafter for parts of Arizona and southern Nevada in the Desert Southwest and Iowa, Wisconsin, and southeastern Minnesota in the Corn Belt. Some short-term improvement is also favored in the Texas hill country due to favorable extended-range temperature and precipitation outlooks. However, beyond April, warmer and drier conditions are predicted to return, so persistence remains favored for most areas of Texas, with the potential for some drought development beyond April in western Texas.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since the official April-May-June seasonal drought outlook released on March 21, above normal precipitation has resulted in improving drought conditions for parts of the Four Corners, Great Plains, and Midwest. Given above normal precipitation chances are favored through mid-April, in addition to the recent improvements from above normal precipitation, parts of the Desert Southwest and the Corn Belt are primed for additional improvements by the end of April. However, precipitation signals remain weak beyond next month in both regions. Therefore, improvements are likely to be limited to the month of April, with persistence favored thereafter for parts of Arizona and southern Nevada in the Desert Southwest and Iowa, Wisconsin, and southeastern Minnesota in the Corn Belt. Some short-term improvement is also favored in the Texas hill country due to favorable extended-range temperature and precipitation outlooks. However, beyond April, warmer and drier conditions are predicted to return, so persistence remains favored for most areas of Texas, with the potential for some drought development beyond April in western Texas.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past month, an active weather pattern covered much of the United States. In areas where drought existed in mid-March, improvement or removal was widespread by mid-April. Drought persistence, deterioration, or development was limited to the south-central Great Plains, areas near the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers' Confluence, and small scattered areas in the central Gulf Coast region, the northern Great Plains, the southern High Plains, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawaii. According to the Drought Monitor, the proportion of the country covered by drought dropped from 18.7 percent on March 12 to 14.7 percent on April 9, which was the smallest amount in almost 4 years (14.6 percent on May 12, 2020; the lowest on record was 2.4 percent in mid-May 2019). The dearth of drought is particularly notable in eastern parts of the country. As of April 16, both the Southeast and Northeast Regions were free of any drought.



El Niño conditions are currently waning, a trend expected to continue through the end of the period, thus El Niño correlations will have declining influence on the outlooks going forward. Climatology, antecedent conditions, trends, and dynamical model output (for both the last half of April, and as incorporated into the May Monthly and May-July Long-Lead Outlooks) were the primary factors Considered.



For the outlook from mid-April through the end of July 2024, a line could be drawn from the Rockies and the southern High Plains to delineate the forecast. West of this line, drought is expected to persist or intensify where it exists, and a Long-Lead Outlook favoring below-normal May-July precipitation led to a forecast for drought development in a few areas with some degree of pre-existing dryness; specifically, much of western Texas, a large portion of Colorado, part of adjacent Utah, and farther north in a swath from eastern Washington through central Montana where drought is not already in place. Drought persistence or intensification is similarly forecast for Hawaii, where the Long-Lead Outlook also favors below-normal precipitation. In drought areas from the northern High Plains and the central and southern Great Plains eastward, drought improvement or removal is anticipated due to model forecasts for heavy precipitation in some areas over the next few weeks, and climatology, with May-July being a relatively wet time of the year when many areas see an increase in soil moisture more often than a decrease. The only exception is in eastern Michigan, where neither climatology nor short-term forecasts are as wet as in areas farther west. In addition, an above-normal precipitation pattern across Puerto Rico is expected to continue, which is forecast to remove drought from the Island by the end of the period. No drought currently exists in either the U.S. Virgin Islands nor Alaska, and none is expected to develop at this time, although southeasternmost Alaska will need to be monitored for impacts from a cold season with unusually little snowfall.



Forecaster: Rich Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: May 16, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion